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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (21536)	11/8/2004 2:32:54 PM
From: JBTFD	Respond to of 110194

While I can see the trend in the wholesale index in Japan, I also note that it is a small decline. Less than 10% over 10 years, or approx 1% a year. Their real estate index I think would show a much larger percentage decline. The difference to me is that Japan is an example of what happens after the mass bubble pops. I agree that deflation is very likely at that point. I think where you and I may differ is our assessment of when that may happen in the US. I was fully expecting it to happen after 911. But the monetary stimulus provided at that time masked any slowdown there was. So now I am thinking it will take more of an imbalance to occur before people lose faith in US money as a stable assets. It is kind of like musical chairs, when will the music stop? But there is denial in the official statistics of the inflation that there already is in the things people really need, like food and shelter and energy. So I think it will have to get more pronounced before people catch on. JMO.