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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (15173)	11/8/2004 7:29:22 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Mixed Data Leaning Toward A Slowing Economy The November 10 federal funds rate hike is a foregone conclusion, with a 2.00% federal funds rate nearly certain. The policy statement after the meeting probably will contain only minor changes. The strong payroll numbers of October have raised the odds of a December tightening. All in all the December monetary policy call is a close call. There is ample evidence to make a case of an economy shifting to a lower gear. The U.S leading index has declined for four straight months, with another drop likely in October. Read the rest from Northern Trust Here: northerntrust.com

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (15173)	11/8/2004 10:45:45 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Japan Oct bank lending down 2.7 pct year-on-year; 82nd straight fall Tuesday, November 9, 2004 12:25:35 AM afxpress.com TOKYO (AFX) - Lending by Japanese banks fell 2.7 pct in October from a year earlier, the 82nd straight month of decline, the Bank of Japan said in a preliminary report, reflecting weak corporate demand for bank financing Bank lending dropped by 2.8 pct in both September and August from year-earlier levels The data shows credit demand remains weak and banks reluctant to lend despite five straight quarters of economic growth On Friday the government will release data on economic growth in the past July-September quarter, which is expected to show the Japanese economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1 pct, according to the average estimate of 10 research houses polled by XFN-Asia Nevertheless, banks remain reluctant to lend to small- and mid-sized companies for fear of incurring bad debts despite Japan's economic rebound And large companies remain reluctant to borrow as they continue to focus on reducing debt, while often turning to capital markets - selling shares or bonds - if they do need to raise money But the October decline in lending was substantially offset by adjustments for special items such as loan securitization, foreign exchange rates and write-offs of bad debt. After adjusting for such factors, lending fell by just 1.3 pct, compared to falls of a revised 1.1 pct in September and a revised 1.2 pct in August In October, lending by banks with branches nationwide - so-called "city banks" - fell 4.7 pct year-on-year. That followed declines of 4.7 pct in September and 4.9 pct in August Lending by large regional banks rose 0.6 pct in October, after falling 1.1 pct in September and by a revised 1.1 pct in August. Lending by second-tier regional banks dropped 5.1 pct year-on-year, after declining 0.5 pct in September and 0.4 pct in August Lending by credit unions fell by 0.6 pct, following declines of 0.7 pct, and 0.8 pct the previous two months