To: Ann Corrigan who wrote (150 ) 11/11/2004 7:13:00 PM From: Richnorth Respond to of 224718 Swooning greenback THE United States dollar has come under increasing pressure. On Monday, the euro hit a record US$1.2986, before coming down slightly after European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said 'excess volatility and disorderly moves in exchange markets aren't desirable'. That is true no doubt, but it is difficult to see how the dollar's decline over the medium term can be halted. Last Friday, it fell despite the release of a better than expected United States employment report indicating the economy created 337,000 jobs in October. This week, it continued to hover near its lows despite expectations that the US Federal Reserve would raise interest rates, which it has. Economic fundamentals - in particular, the US fiscal and current account deficits - are driving the dollar's decline, and this cannot be stemmed by jawboning alone. America's current account deficit is approaching 6 per cent of its gross domestic product, a record. To finance this deficit, the US has to borrow about US$2 billion (S$3.3 billion) every working day from the rest of the world. Four years ago, at the height of the Internet frenzy, most of this borrowing went to finance private sector investments. Now, most of it goes to finance government borrowing. The dollar's recent fall is in some respects a reaction to President George W. Bush's re-election, with currency traders fearing his promise to make his tax cuts permanent and push through with an expensive partial privatisation of Social Security may bust the budget. With the US already absorbing 70 per cent of the combined reserves of all the surplus countries in the world, any decline in the willingness of foreigners to continue holding dollars will have profound effects on the global economy. As it is, the currency market is rife with rumours that the dollar's recent drop has been led by foreign governments selling US assets. The rule of thumb is that whenever a country's current account deficit exceeds 5 per cent of its GDP, an adjustment is bound to occur. By this reckoning, the US is past the point when an adjustment should have taken place. The dollar will probably continue to decline, Americans will have to save more and the fiscal deficit will have to be brought under control. The only options before the US may well be whether to make this adjustment itself by changing course, or to let international capital markets force it to do so.straitstimes.asia1.com.sg