Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (15285)	11/9/2004 7:27:48 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Social Security ran a surplus of ~$200 Billion this year (~25% of total SS revenue was surplus). Under current assumptions, the Surplus will continue to GROW until 2017. Then the surplus will start to decline. Social Security will continue running a surplus for a number of more years and finally start to exhaust the trust fund around 2042. All of the above is if we MAKE no changes. So why are people concerned about Social Security? The reason is the SS surplus (the most regressive tax in America) is being used for General Fund expenditures. Those workers in the lower and middle classes are being told they are paying into SS while 25% of the SS payments are actually going to national defense and other general fund spending priorities. Saying that SS is "insolvent" is absurd. It is the Federal government that is irresponsible.

To: orkrious who wrote (15285)	11/9/2004 7:39:54 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Rolling Deflation? Via Email - Mish to Heinz: Watching interest rate futures I am right now wondering if we get rolling deflation with the EU next. Euribors (EU Interest rate futures) sold off the least in the latest treasury downdraft and gained almost all of it back in just two days. Eurodollars some 30 points lower on dec05 contracts and short sterling (UK) some 20 points lower. Euribors down a mere 5. Plenty of room for cuts in the UK and that is my biggest position. Reply From Heinz: re. European rates, note in this context that the first rumors of an ECB rate cut have been heard - objective: weakening of the euro. i like this rolling deflation idea...and i certainly agree that the UK is ripe for an easing cycle to begin - they started the rate hike exercise in futility, and will be the first ones to take it back (not that there'll be much of a choice imo). FF futures now indicate a likely hike in both Nov. and Dec. - if so, it'll be two steps too far - and it wouldn't be the first time the Fed got carried away only to go into emergency mode not much later. i for one am already alarmed at how flat the yield curve has become - it's already enough to set the 'imminent recession' alarm bells ringing (an inverted yield curve would guarantee it, but it's not a necessary precondition). stock market looks ripe for a pre-emptive whacking too... regards, hb