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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (15453)	11/11/2004 12:36:56 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Bean Report Hi, this is Tim Hannagan its Wed. Nov.10 and the markets are closed. I’m putting up this special Wed. addition to explain the opening sharp move higher. Soybean prices opened 8 cents higher and quickly moved to 33 cents higher before settling back on news a crop killing rust spore had bee found in Louisiana and Arkansas. This crop disease spreads very quickly and devastates yields. This had traders short the market buy out on the open then pick up buy stops pushing us to the high. Lets back up and get the history of this. Last spring while Brazil was beginning to finish their growing season and begin harvest they had a big out break of the disease than spread to areas over half their growing region. Areas effected suffered severe yield losses and made grain from those areas suspect for export. We heard of China sending back several shipments of beans found to be tainted with the grain disease o fear it would be spread to their growing regions. There was talk here in the U.S that we will have to watch for the disease to show up here next sprig as it could travel via bird migration. Well it appears next year is now and it may have been her since spring. Traders fears are that if tit can spread form South America in one spring season then it could move fro, our southern delta where only 10% of our coarse grains grow into our major midwest growing states by spring planting as always the market trades fear before fact and now you know why they open and trade markets everyday because you never know what news can break. We could be down 20 or 30 cents on beans and corn tomorrow if they over mad cow disease in Texas threatening grain consumption at feed yards. Its more probable this is a one day aberration with the market to watch for further new s on its spread in the future. Thursday looks to be a choppy two sided day in preparation for Fri. 7:30 am central time crop production report. Most believe the reports will come in bearish for corn and beans. Because of the large number of short positions that bought out today if the report is more bearish than expected we could see them all pile back in short giving a move to new lows quickly. So be aware and keep your puts on for protections if your long. alaron.com