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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Tommaso who wrote (15497)11/11/2004 2:05:50 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
RPT Forex - Euro pressured by ECB intervention talk
Thursday, November 11, 2004 6:04:28 PM
afxpress.com

(Repeating to clarify Trichet's comments were made in Palermo, not Milan)
LONDON (AFX) - The euro remained stuck around the 1.29 usd mark as the market mulled the prospect of possible European Central Bank intervention to halt the currency's export-sapping appreciation against the dollar

The euro's rally, which saw it breach the 1.30 usd mark yesterday for the first time since its launch in 1999, ground to a halt as the market reacted to comments from euro zone officials as well as mounting expectations of another US rate hike by the end of this year

However, because of a public holiday in the US today, market activity has been subdued

In recent days, ECB officials have ratcheted up their language on the euro's rise, which could potentially grind anaemic euro zone growth to a halt

Most importantly, the ECB's president Jean-Claude Trichet backed up his description of recent exchange rate movements as "brutal" and "not welcome"

Trichet told a conference in Palermo today that it was "necessary" to say what he did on Monday, when he stated that the euro's appreciation was not welcome from the ECB's standpoint

In addition, his deputy Lucas Papademos told an audience in Tokyo that excess volatility in foreign exchange markets was undesirable

In light of the objections, the markets are on the lookout for possible euro selling and dollar buying from the European Central Bank

"It's clearly on the agenda and we are now entering the zone of actual market intervention," said Neil Mackinnon, chief economist at ECU Group

"By pushing the euro through 1.30 usd, investors should be on alert, for we are close to the (ECB's) pain threshold," he added

The ECB's last foray onto foreign exchange markets was in late 2000. At the time it acted in coordination with other G7 countries to buy euros and sell dollars after the eurozone unit plunged to a record low of 0.8230 usd

The US monetary authorities are unlikely to get involved and are widely believed to be in favour of a managed depreciation in the dollar

"The perception that the US favours a weaker dollar to help rectify the huge current account imbalance contrasts sharply with the European policy stance and is likely to become an increasing source of friction over coming weeks," said Mitul Kotecha, senior currency strategist at CALYON

Though US officials have been notably silent about the dollar developments, alarm bells appear to have been rung at the Bank of Japan, which has a reputation for intervening in the market to stem the yen's appreciation. "We can't rule out joint intervention between the ECB and the BoJ," said ECU Group's Mackinnon

The dollar was also benefiting from the Federal Reserve's move to put up US interest rates overnight and suggestion that more rate hikes may come

After peaking at 1.3005 usd yesterday, the single European currency slipped back under 1.29 usd as investors digested the slightly more upbeat stance from the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee

Though the Fed's decision to raise its key federal funds rate by a quarter point to 2.0 pct was widely expected, dollar bulls were encouraged by the accompanying statement, which suggested that another interest rate hike in December remains on the cards

The FOMC said it can continue to raise rates at "a measured pace" and that policy, even after yesterday's hike, remains accommodative. The path of US rates now depends on the flow of upcoming economic data

Separately, data showing that German GDP grew just 0.1 pct in the third quarter from the second quarter, also weighed on the euro. Economists polled by AFX News had forecast quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.3 pct

Against the pound, the euro held its own, buoyed by the relatively dovish economic projections from the Bank of England yesterday, which suggested that UK interest rates may have already peaked

The euro found a footing above the psychologically important 0.70 stg level

London 1610 GMT London 1317 GMT US dollar yen 106.67 down from 106.80 sfr 1.1770 down from 1.1780 Euro usd 1.2897 up from 1.2890 stg 0.7000 down from 0.7003 yen 137.61 down from 137.72 sfr 1.5183 down from 1.5190 Sterling usd 1.8417 up from 1.8410 yen 196.52 down from 196.60 sfr 2.1678 down from 2.1688 Australian dollar usd 0.7620 up from 0.7601 stg 0.4135 up from 0.4132 yen 81.31 up from 81.18 pp/tc For more information and to contact AFX: www.afxnews.com and www.afxpress.com



To: Tommaso who wrote (15497)11/11/2004 2:17:49 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Soaring loonie cuts filming
Subsidies drawing movies elsewhere
One studio offers 78-cent U.S. dollar

Snip....

When Hollywood titans such as Steven Spielberg want to make movies in Canada, Michael Prupas is usually one of the first people to field a phone call.

The trouble is, Prupas said, his phone hasn't been ringing as often in recent weeks.

The 53-year-old producer is among a growing number of stakeholders in Canada's once vibrant film industry who worry that a robust Canadian dollar is bad for business.

"There's a real danger with the dollar rising as much as it has, as fast as it has," said Prupas, whose credits include The Terminal, which starred Tom Hanks and Catch Me if You Can with Leonardo DiCaprio.

Prupas said he's already lost several prospective productions to Louisiana and he isn't the only one feeling the pinch.

Producer Don Carmody's plans to work for a unit of Universal Films on Revolver, a psychological thriller starring Sarah Michelle Geller, were scuppered in recent weeks when Universal pulled the production out of Toronto.

"The studios have no loyalty," said Carmody, who was co-producer of the Academy Award winning film Chicago.

For years, Hollywood companies looking to save money on productions were drawn to Canada by a less-expensive dollar and the promise of provincial and federal labour tax credits.

With the Canadian dollar's rapid climb, however, coupled with aggressive tax credit programs in at least 44 U.S. states, that advantage is weakening, industry officials said.

"We have a pretty empty slate staring at us in January," said Kenneth Ferguson, president of Toronto Film Studios Inc., which boasts 15 shooting stages on its 12.1-hectare downtown property. "There are so many things going against the Canadian film industry right now."

California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, for instance, is lobbying Sony Corp.'s Columbia Pictures and other Hollywood producers to film more movies in the United States, while Louisiana, New York and other U.S. states are introducing more favourable labour tax credit programs, Ferguson said.

With that in mind, Toronto Film Studios said yesterday that it would allow U.S. customers pricing in U.S. dollars to lock in at the rate of 78 cents (U.S.). That amounts to a 5.76-cent saving, based on the Canadian dollar's closing price yesterday of 83.76 cents (U.S.).

The Canadian dollar, at the 83-cent mark for the first time in 12 years, has climbed 9 per cent in the past three months and gained 8 per cent this year, the most of the world's 16 major currencies.

Some economists have predicted the loonie might even surpass 85 cents before the year's end — and could in coming years reach parity with the U.S dollar, which hasn't happened since November, 1976.

"We're just trying to take the dollar out of the equation," said Ferguson, whose company expects to record about $7 million (Canadian) in revenue this year hosting about 20 productions.

Industry sources said other stakeholders in the $2 billion film service business, including unions representing directors and actors, were considering similar incentives.

"People in this business aren't looking at a full dance card right now," said John Barrack, an executive with the Canadian Film and Television Producers Association. "It's slowing down."

Currently, there are four feature films shooting in Toronto, down from five a year ago and six in 2002, said Rhonda Silverstone, manager of the Toronto Film and Television Office.

"The dollar going up is a killer."

Toronto isn't only losing out more frequently to U.S. locations. While Ontario, Quebec and B.C. offer an 11 per cent tax break on labour costs, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia are trying to win more filming business by offering tax breaks of as much as 35 per cent.

"It's tough to compete with that," Silverstone said.

In a speech to the lobby group FilmOntario on Tuesday, Toronto Mayor David Miller said he has spoken with Prime Minister Paul Martin about his concerns for Canada's faltering film industry and suggested the formation of two new units to help bolster the local movie business.

A new Toronto Film Board, chaired by Miller, might lobby foreign producers to shoot in Toronto, while an "interdepartmental working group" might handle parking and film permits and other logistics.

"As things stand, there are a lot of incentives from the other orders of government to take production outside the GTA," said Patchen Barss, a spokesperson for the mayor.

Carmody said incentives like the ones offered by Toronto Film Studios won't mean much unless others follow suit.

"If you're dealing with a $20 million picture, your studio costs are going to be maybe $300,000," said Carmody, whose film credits also include Good Will Hunting and Porky's. "What about the hotel and car rentals and catering costs? The studio is a relatively small cost."

Still, Bob Presner said U.S.-based studios should continue to consider Canada as a filming locale — even if the Canadian dollar climbs as high as 90 cents.

"Whether it's 85 cents or 90 cents, it's still an advantage," said Presner, a Toronto adviser with Film Finances Canada Inc., which insures banks and other financiers against films going over budget.



To: Tommaso who wrote (15497)11/11/2004 2:19:09 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Big Three automakers´ U.S. market share at all-time low
Thursday, November 11, 2004 6:49:50 PM
afxpress.com

Big Three automakers' U.S. market share at all-time low SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- U.S. automakers, confident that the new crop of 2005 models would make for an easier sell, shaved their costly buyer incentive programs last month. But the move did little to help their share of the domestic market, which slumped to an all-time low, according to a recent Edmunds.com survey

With fewer rebates available on the U.S. brands, car buyers turned to foreign models more than ever before, underscoring the domestic carmakers' reliance on steep discounting to spur demand. Total U.S. market share for the Detroit automakers fell to 56.5 percent, the lowest ever, the study showed

"With very few exceptions, we see little reason for consumers to flock to GM and Ford show rooms in November and December absent the next 'Big Deal,' " analyst Rod Lache told Deutsche Bank clients

Taking the number to heart, General Motors Corp. announced Wednesday just such a deal. The so-called Lock & Roll program allows buyers to apply current interest rates on loans for their next two vehicles provided they buy a 2005 model through the automaker's financing arm. Chrysler, with its new Chrysler 300 and Dodge Magnum, and Ford Motor Co. , with its fresh Mustang, actually managed to fractionally increase their market share. But a steep 6 percent decline at GM more than offset those slight advances

Overall, the average manufacturer incentive per vehicle sold in the United States in October fell $491, or 15.6 percent, from the previous month, to $2,655. Compared with the same month last year, however, incentives rose by $134 per car, or 5.3 percent, on average

Chrysler, Ford and GM spent $3,663 per vehicle, $616 less than in September. GM, the largest U.S. automaker, came in with the largest percentage drop, off $735 to $3,858

A buyers' market, but not quite so much of one "Most manufacturers did not have to rely on incentives as heavily this month since they were selling more 2005 model-year vehicles," said Edmunds.com analyst Jane Liu

"Also, consumers realize that 2005 models will hold their value longer than their 2004 counterparts, and are willing to pay more for them," she added

As for specific brands, Lincoln offered the biggest incentives at $4,823, followed by GM's Saab at $4,566 and Ford's Jaguar at $4,345

The vehicles giving the least back to buyers included BMW's Cooper Mini at $12 and Toyota's Scion and Lexus models at $73 and $167, respectively

Large sports utility vehicles offered the most of all vehicle segments, averaging $4,680 each, while luxury sports cars at and luxury SUVs managed to sell with the least amount of discounting

Shares of GM, a Dow Jones Industrial Average component, added 39 cents, or 1 percent, to $39.75, while Ford rose 9 cents to $14 and U.S.-traded shares of DaimlerChrysler advanced 75 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $44.72



To: Tommaso who wrote (15497)11/11/2004 2:30:39 PM
From: Knighty Tin  Respond to of 116555
 
The real Sun King is actually wearing an iron mask at Gitmo.



To: Tommaso who wrote (15497)11/11/2004 9:47:54 PM
From: FiveFour  Respond to of 116555
 
that is much too funny.