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To: maceng2 who wrote (655)	11/12/2004 12:31:20 AM
From: maceng2	Respond to of 1417

'22,000 jobs to be lost' ananova.com Thousands of manufacturing jobs are set to be lost in the next few months as weak exports subdue growth, new research for the CBI showed. Export orders fell in most parts of the country in the past three months, leading to a slump in business optimism. Employment was showing tentative signs of improvement after three poor years, but 22,000 jobs will still be lost in the next few months, the report predicted. Jobs continue to be cut in Northern Ireland, the South East, London and the West Midlands, while employment has been rising for the past six months in Wales, the South West and Yorkshire and the Humber. Export orders fell most markedly in Northern Ireland and the West Midlands in the three months to October although rose in Scotland. Manufacturing in the West Midlands remained "particularly gloomy", according to the survey of 770 firms. Doug Godden, head of economic analysis at the CBI, said: "The impact of rising costs on profitability is a major issue for the second survey in succession. We know from the national results that energy-intensive and metal-related industries are being hit hardest. "The regional pattern reflects this, with the West Midlands and northern regions of England seeing the sharpest cost increases. It is critical that the Bank of England and the Treasury take note. Now is not the time for further increases in interest rates or rises in business taxation." Peter Gutmann of economic forecasters Experian, which helped with the research, said: "International demand has been less supportive to manufacturing than might have been expected, given that the global economy continues to expand at a healthy pace and that sterling has eased in recent months. "The muted picture reflects the fact that export orders have been very disappointing. It is nevertheless significant that most regions posted increases in output, some quite marked, in contrast to the decline seen in official figures. "This is not the first time this year that survey evidence and official data have diverged."