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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (21687)	11/12/2004 10:24:34 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

My take is that in 2003 US economy was over stimulated by tax cuts and 1% fed funds, in turn this greatly stimulated Chinese economy which was already under excessive stimulation after SARS scare. So the party had started. The problem is that besides us, bears, everyone else thinks there will be no adverse effects.

To: russwinter who wrote (21687)	11/12/2004 12:25:15 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, regarding the article ... <<But because of massive over-investment, lack of financial system sophistication, rigidity of a centrally planned economy, and staggering and growing inequalities, a hard landing seems inevitable>> ... doubtful, because (a) massive over-investment relative to what - China hadn't built a thing for 300 years, and 20 years of construction doesn't even make a dent in what is actually needed; (b) lack of financial sophistication will be a good thing; strapping a youngster who cannot walk on to a Harley is not astute; (c) rigidity of ... ?! Chinese economy in the aggregate has been the most rapidly changing, dynamic, and flexible infant over the past 20 years. Rigidity did not produce the China of today; (d) staggering inequalities, perhaps, but in the context of almost everyone being better off; and as to ... (e) "a hard landing seems inevitable" ... defining hard landing may help the discussion. Chugs, Jay