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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neeka who wrote (85767)	11/12/2004 11:20:02 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793866

Here is a good summary and chart on the WA Governor race. Looks like you are going to have a Republican one. Of course, that is after a recount and screaming. Here's where things stand as of this morning Rossi is leading by 3,720 votes, with 81,440 uncounted ballots remaining. Of the uncounted ballots, 31,225 are in Gregoire counties, 50,215 in Rossi counties. Weighted for the number of uncounted ballots in each county, and the way these counties have thrown all of their previously counted ballots, Rossi has a 0.84% lead in the uncounted ballots, or an extra 683 votes. So his total projected margin of victory is 4,403. On the other hand, the votes that were counted this week (all absentee and provisional) were even more favorable to Rossi than were the votes counted last week (poll ballots plus some absentee). If the remaining uncounted votes are more similar in composition to the other votes that were counted this week, Rossi's lead in the uncounted ballots would be 1.22% (992 votes), for a total margin of victory of 4,712. Is there any chance of Gregoire winning? Yes, but only if the uncounted ballots are sufficiently different in nature from the counted ballots that instead of giving Rossi a 0.84% overall lead (1.22% this week), they would give Gregoire a 4.57% lead. It's not immediately obvious why we should expect the uncounted ballots to be that much more favorable to Gregoire than the counted ballots. CHART AT soundpolitics.com