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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (55896)	11/13/2004 12:11:58 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

;0/ you just had to do that didn't you, making me considering turning 180 degrees, and then turn again :0)

To: energyplay who wrote (55896)	11/13/2004 5:30:35 AM
From: Golconda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Uranium: also worth considering Afrikanderlease in South Africa and Summit Resources in Australia - junior exploration co's. Could have a very good run? reuters.co.uk reuters.co.uk

To: energyplay who wrote (55896)	11/14/2004 1:52:46 AM
From: Taikun	Respond to of 74559

Hi EP, On vacation here in Vancouver. Re: CCJ <I need to find out why it went up.> There have been a couple of bullish articles on CCJ in the Canadian newspapers last week and I believe that pushed CCJ up. I had sold and was surprised to see it above my sale price. With CCJ's hedges, on a valuation basis, it appears ahead of itself until hedges come off at the end of 05. I don't think it should move until mid-05. There is some new production coming on but not much. One analyst had a priced target of C$120 despite the hedges. Maybe MinMetals will bid? Maybe Putin will take HEU off the market and redeploy? Maybe the WMC deal has revalued uranium cos. Anyway, the two articles were in the National Post 11/10, 11/12. Only 11/10 was posted on their site, 11/12 had the target. David How Cameco's profits will keep rising Andrea Wait Financial Post November 10, 2004 CREDIT: Gord Waldner, National Post A worker at Cameco's McArthur River mine uses a remote-controlled loader that operates in radioactive areas. Cameco Corp. has had a tremendous run this year, with the stock up 81%, but the next few years might be better yet. The price of uranium has soared over the past year, from US$14.50 per pound to US$20.25 per pound, but Greg Barnes, analyst at Canaccord Capital, believes that uranium producers are just beginning to get the upper hand in the market. What has happened for the past 20 years is that the uranium market has been oversupplied. It took years for uranium consumers to burn through the large uranium inventories, which started to build up as far back as the 1970s. The oversupply was only exacerbated by the introduction of Russian uranium on the market with the breakup of the Soviet Union in the 1980s and the nuclear disarmament program in the 1990s. Over the past year, uranium prices have been moving up because uranium inventories have been reduced -- and the market has been changing in favour of the producers instead of consumers. Mr. Barnes believes that uranium producers are beginning to negotiate long-term contracts with their customers for the first time. Old contracts were short in duration (three to five years) and customers had flexibility with volumes. They didn't have to pay more to change volumes and prices were capped. "Following conversations with a number of participants in the uranium market, we believe that the long-term contracting market has changed significantly, even with the past six months," Mr. Barnes said in a research note yesterday. "The consumers (read nuclear utilities) have become less sensitive and more security of supply conscious, as prices have risen and availability of material has become a more pressing issue, particularly over the period 2006-2010." "We understand that Cameco, for one, is in the process of transitioning its contracts to longer durations, with hard price floors and no price ceilings and little in the way of volume flexibility." Cameco has been in the unfortunate position of not fully benefiting from increasing uranium prices recently. The prices it realizes for its uranium sales have been lagging the spot price of uranium this year. In 2005, 91% of its sales target for uranium is fixed in price, or in other words is insensitive to spot price movements. That drops to 65% in 2006. But beyond that time, Mr. Barnes believes that Cameco will start benefiting from better long-term contracts and begin to even realize uranium prices on its sales that exceed spot price levels. For instance, if uranium averages at about US$20 per pound at the end of the decade, Cameco might reap US$22 or US$23 per pound. Mr. Barnes believes that contracts are now being negotiated that involve terms of six to 10 years, with no price ceilings and premium pricing if the buyers want volume flexibility, but he notes that he isn't aware of any contracts that have been signed yet that contain terms like this. © National Post 2004 canada.com

To: energyplay who wrote (55896)	11/14/2004 9:00:03 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello EP, About these trades Message 20762528 , the confirmations are in, and: COS went for CAD 57.91-58.11 Algonquin went for CAD 9.98 ... here is the happy surprise, the Cameco were unloaded for CAD 107.39 Let us hope the beast gets taken down by 10% tonight to make it convenient double happy surprise :0) Did you ever figure/find out why Cameco did the moon shot? I hope it is not because China made a takeout bid ;0/ Chugs, Jay