Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : The Woodshed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (16561)	11/13/2004 8:19:41 PM
From: JIMAKANCHORAGE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60908

FYI EBAY and my ERES short puts and long calls position improves... hanger currin buy Ebay Leap Calls NS Ebay is not a short... it was for a few days we both lost onthat one. Hager Technology Research/CurrinResearch Weekly Update =========================================== Fredhager.com fredhager.com CurrinResearch.com currinresearch.com A Division of Fredhager.com Stocks on the Move Upward Hager Technology Team 11/12/04 As we approach the end of 2004, stocks are heading up. Several of the factors important for market sentiment have turned in the same direction. Jobs data improved, oil prices are well off their lofty highs, the election is over and did not drag out, and inflation remains low. Even consumer sentiment turned in an upbeat number. Although interest rates are rising, the rates remain low. GDP looks good and corporate earnings, though slowing from the rapid post bubble rise, are still growing nicely. All in all, the post election sentiment in the market has been quite bullish. The S&P is up 10% over a three month period with 4.7% of the move coming after the election. The NASDAQ is up 19% over a three month period with 5% of that move coming after the election. Although definitely impacted, the markets showed good resiliency in the face of peak oil prices. Now that oil is off those peaks a full fledged rally is upon us. It took a quickly resolved election and a back down in oil prices to finally put the NASDAQ, S&P and DOW indices back above their starting point for the year. Enough about the macro though; we’ll save that for our 2005 outlook. Let’s look at some of the stocks in our portfolio. Longs and LEAPS We wanted to take some time when talking about these stocks to clarify some of the portfolios. This is especially so for new subscribers because of the huge percentage of eBay now reflected in the B portfolio. The B portfolio will be revised in coming weeks but in the meantime new subscribers should consider the allocations without the eBay option position. We have a pleasant problem there from the huge gain. If you are interested in LEAPS in eBay or our other LEAPS we suggest you look at the C and D portfolios. eBay Roars On eBay continues to show very strong performance. In the last three months the stock is up more than 40%. Just this week eBay stock climbed 8%. The market was happy with the company’s forecast and its continued strength in international growth and in PayPal. JP Morgan adding EBAY to its focus list with a $129 target certainly didn’t hurt either. eBay has been making moves to further boost its international performance. Recent moves include acquisitions in India, South Korea, Germany and the Netherlands. We recently sold the eBay option position in the C portfolio with over a 500% gain. We purchased additional eBay LEAPS in portfolio C that expire in 2007. Those options are already up more than 72% in less than a month. Note we also still have the eBay position in portfolio B. We would encourage new subscribers to substitute that with the 2007 position in portfolio C as the option in B portfolio are close to expiration. Subscribers that purchased the LEAPS in the B portfolio when we introduced them have gained 2200%. We will be adjusting the B portfolio after we take a huge profit on eBay. Consider though that older subscribers are already way ahead on the position. If your gain is not as lofty because you entered much later, you might want to consider taking some profit ahead of our planned B portfolio adjustments that will accompany our profit taking on eBay there. eResearch Bouncing Back ERES is up some 27% off its October low. The stock took two hard hits on its way to that low. The first hard hit came when management first warned for the quarter, lowering estimates. The second hit came when they missed even the lowered number. In combination with the earnings miss and adjustments to forecast, there was a lot of doubt raised about the impact of the latest version of the FDA guidance on cardiac safety testing. In particular, the allowance of a lower cost semi-automated method in addition to the “gold standard” fully manual version of the testing spooked some big investors. Since then however, ERES has demonstrated they can sign semi-automated deals. In addition to highlighting they can and will win semi-automated deals, ERES has announced a few of them over their $1 million threshold. This is an encouraging sign and has already been noticed. We believe the initial reaction to the warning certainly warranted a near term price move as it typically does in any stock. The second move down however was more a less a reaction to management missing the revised number and not being able to allay the swirling fears of the impacts of the FDA guidance. In a sense this is what the market has now said having retraced to a level above where the stock closed after the initial warning. Management has done a fine job as the gaudy year over year growth in earnings and revenues confirm. Continued execution in the face of a shifting regulatory landscape will propel the stock higher. In our view ERES has simply gone from the “gold standard” cardiac safety business to “silver and gold standard” offerings. It’s worth noting that ERES executives have suspended planned stock sales and that the company is repurchasing some. Both the CEO and the Chief Financial Officer have terminated their 10b5-1 trading plans of planned sales. The company recently commented in a November 8th, AeA Financial conference, “We are in the market…given where the stock is today it’s a good opportunity for the company to be buying back shares.” The company is authorized to buy over 2.2 million shares. Though we highlight special aberrations we rarely make “averaging down” moves in the portfolio. The ERES situation was different however since we had an opportunity to apply some big profits from the transaction in eBay. We added ERES LEAPS in the C portfolio Those LEAPS are up 43%. ERES appears back on a pace of signing and announcing $1 million plus contracts. Although the mix of the deals has changed and now includes some semi-automated announcements, the company is well on its way to allaying the investor fears associated with FDA guidance.