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Politics : The Castle -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (4082)	11/14/2004 10:56:06 AM
From: Lane3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7936

Rather, I hope you are referring to the people Maureen is writing about. Actually, I was referring those who were disconcerting to Ted, you, and Maureen, but Maureen's piece wasn't what you'd call moderate in tone, either.

To: Mary Cluney who wrote (4082)	11/14/2004 2:49:53 PM
From: TimF	Respond to of 7936

The center has shifted far to the right. In some ways it may have. In other ways it has shifted a lot to the left. That gay marriage can even be seriously entertained is a large shift to the left and such a shift took time. It didn't happen because of one election or a few years of social and political changes in the US. The fact that it was rejected in 11 states out of 11 where the question came up isn't a shift back to the old "right" positions, it is just a halt, or a perhaps just a slowdown on the move to the left on this issue. The left sees their ideas as the way of progress, and they see this progress as the right course of history. Any slowdown or halt, or small or temporary reversal of this "progress", is seen as being a huge swing to the right. There hasn't been a huge swing in values and opinions to the right. There has been a small swing to the party that is more conservative because many liberals have gone, or seek to go, further than many in the middle ever wanted to go, or (if your liberal and optimistic) further than they are ready to go at this time. Iraq and the fact that many support it is also taken by at least some on the left to be a sign that the country has shifted to the conservative side. I don't think it is a very good sign of any such thing. The main difference with Iraq and many other recent wars is that it is bigger. We aren't invading Panama or Grenada, or intervening in Kosovo, we invaded a country as big in both population and size as one of the larger US states. Clinton called for regime change too remember, and Kerry alternated between saying it was "the wrong war at the wrong place at the wrong time, and saying that knowing what he did now he would have still voted for the war. Bush may have actually gone ahead and done something about it but the shift is not a huge leap, even if it is a shift past the decisive tipping point that lead to an invasion. One area where there has been a bit of actual shift to the right is in homeland security. People have had to deal with more inconvenience and a slightly more intrusive federal government in this area. This change is real, but again it has been exaggerated by many. You don't, and won't have armies of secret police rounding up people who are known to be innocent of any real crime. Also I think we have reached a limit here. Any serious further steps in this direction will bring the opposition, not just of the liberals, or even of people in the middle, but also opposition from many conservatives as well. Its a big country and it changes slowly. Even 9/11 only caused a change at the margin. The US isn't that different of place than it was a year ago, 6 years ago, or 20 years ago. I started to develop many of my political opinions when Reagan was president (before that I was young and didn't really care or understand). In many ways I agreed with Reagan, and found Bush Sr. to be acceptable. When Clinton was elected it was something of a shock to me, esp. with his national health care plans and other early moves to the left. But the most extreme of his moves where rejected or reduced, and my life went on mostly unaffected. The liberals aren't going to take away 90% of our paychecks and the conservatives aren't going to nuke the middle east or make sex between umarried people illegal. Very few of either side would even want to do such things, and those few are totally marginilzed. Elections are important but they rarely make us much difference as the partisan on both sides (and those who might be less partisan but make a living writing of speaking about political issues) say they will make. If Kery had won another 100,000 votes in Ohio I would have been upset, and there are some things I'd worry about, but the president isn't a dictator. Social and political forces limit the difference he can make, and even if presidents where not so limited very few of them are as radical as the other side would paint them. The left didn't lose a war, they lost an election cycle. If the right gets arrogant and stupid then the left will probably win the next one esp, if they put up a moderate sensible candidate. Wild conspiracy theories, doom and gloom thinking, or talk about secession is really not called for. Tim