To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (660247 ) 11/14/2004 9:26:01 PM From: Hope Praytochange Respond to of 769670 The major averages rallied for a third straight week, shaking off geopolitical worries and a less-than-inspiring earnings report from tech heavyweight Cisco Systems. The S&P 500 has now rallied nearly 100 points in three weeks with the Nasdaq Composite up nearly 200 points in the same period; these are the strongest gains posted for the major indices in over a year. Some of this improvement is no doubt due to strengthening economic data and an improved outlook for earnings growth. Third-quarter earnings season is now winding to a close; more than 90 percent of S&P 500 firms have already reported earnings. Overall growth in S&P 500 earnings should come in around 16.9 percent year-over-year, a far cry from last quarter's 25.3 percent growth, but still nicely above expectations at the beginning of the quarter for growth of around 14.8 percent. What is clear is that traders are beginning to discount last summer's economic slowdown as just a temporary soft patch. Late last summer, many analysts started to pull down estimates for earnings growth over the next year, anticipating a more severe slowdown. However, over the last few weeks in response to reasonably solid corporate earnings and stronger economic data, those growth numbers have started to creep higher again. An improved economic outlook is certainly not news for the Federal Reserve--the week's big news event was a Fed meeting that concluded on Wednesday. In a move that came as a surprise to few, the central bank hiked the Fed funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 2 percent. This is the Fed's fourth quarter-point hike this year and many expect an additional hike at the December meeting. However, compared to last spring, the bond market reacted rather calmly to the news. Bonds saw yields rise in response to the October employment report two weeks ago but yields actually fell in the wake of the Fed's announcement. It seems that expectations for continued rate tightening at the Fed are already built in to the bond market. Finally, crude oil provided another boost for the market. Crude has been steadily sliding for about three weeks now and despite worries that Yasser Arafat's funeral might spark unrest in the Middle East, energy prices continued to fall.