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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (21800)	11/15/2004 2:20:56 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

KBH, RYL,TOL,BZH and NVR among the national builders hitting new highs today. Check out WLS up 14 points today on huge volume probably company buyback of shares. I'm sticking at one more pump and dump for the housing, financials and probably the overall market in this seasonaly strong time into early next year. As for regions of the country what do you see happening soon that the stock market would discount in the next six months as being so catastrophic to cause a collapse now? I agree a major downturn is inevitable but still see it as a second half 2005 story unless long term rates back up a couple of points real fast. <Pulte is almost back to 60 -- now that is incredible -- I don't think it is stupidity necessarily -- it is liquidity -- we need to start watching for an implied vol collapse in the homie puts -- when we get that it will be time. I remain unrepentant with respect to the homies -- it will be a CRASH, imo and catch most everyone by suprise>

To: yard_man who wrote (21800)	11/15/2004 9:57:02 PM
From: daffodil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

>>I remain unrepentant with respect to the homies -- it will be a CRASH, imo and catch most everyone by suprise<< I'm mapping out a tour of TOL and PHM sites in our area for some scouting this weekend. I've gleaned what (limited) information I can from their websites and their ads in the Sunday paper. What I have seen leaves me astonished that they could be asking the outrageous prices they're asking in the undesirable communities in which they're building. So I'm going to see the sites: exactly what stage are the sites/homes in? Are the ones that the websites say are ready in "Fall 2004" ready? How eager are they to talk (lowered?) price to potential buyers? What are the actual street names (obscured in the websites) in the development so that I can track actual sales? Perhaps some of us could pitch in with these drive-arounds in different areas so that we might be able to share some of this information and data? }=>--------->>>>