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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Micawber who wrote (25257)	11/15/2004 5:58:12 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

This month is the first time, since 1990, that I've seen fear among those who work for home builders here in southern California. Time will tell if it's the end or just a panic. .

To: Micawber who wrote (25257)	11/16/2004 1:50:34 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 306849

Changes in interest rates, underwriting and affordability are issues frequently talked about that increase risk to homebuilders but i see another key other variable that takes the wind from the backs of the industry. I bet total costs of construction are at least double what they were just 3 years ago for projects just breaking ground now in bubble markets. Land prices up to 5-10 times higher and hard costs at least 30-40% higher. <They still have relatively low PEs.> <Their earnings can never last.>