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Politics : Moderate Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (13771)	11/16/2004 6:09:53 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20773

On the surface you are correct, but let's dig a little deeper. Both Iran and Israel are engaged in a battle over sphere of influence in the middle east. Israel is somewhat ahead, but there is more or less a balance. It goes something like this: Israel has nukes, but because it is very small it is vulnerable to conventional weapons, should they make it over their cities. Israel has a better air force and secure air rights from Jordan and Turkey (or now Iraq). Iran just flew unmanned drones over Israel. Israel pushed very hard to incite the Azeri population in Iran before redirecting that effort towards the Kurds. Iran has had better luck with Hamas and Hezbollah (no need for incitement, just give them weapons). Israel has the advantage of more technologically advanced military. On the other It can never really conquer any country. Israel could use its nukes, if the push came to shove, but not if the other country also had nukes. Which is why they are so adamantly against giving Iran any chance to have them. I can reasonably show that Iran's nukes will be only for defensive purposes and neither Israel nor US fear an nuclear attack from Iran. It is just that a nuclear Iran will change the balance of power and limit their options in putting pressure on Iran. Recently US gave (for free) bunker busters to Israel in a not so subtle sign to provide Israel with the means to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran in return made the statement that any invasion by Israel will be deemed as if it was from US directly and that if Iran sees it as very likely, they will launch preemptive attacks of their own. They have since given some support to the insurgents in Iraq. It is more or less a deadlock. Should Iran reach for nukes, a purely defensive weapon from the Iranian perspective, it almost guarantees an invasion on itself. ST