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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (21896)	11/17/2004 1:37:53 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Surely buyers will always step up to buy U.S. Treasuries - at a price. They may insist on a 9% coupon instead of 4%, but there will be buyers.

To: mishedlo who wrote (21896)	11/17/2004 2:23:20 AM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

You also have record holdings of mortgage debt to worry about that was not the big a percentage of total outstanding debt it is today in the prior collapses such as 1987 or 2000. I guess in the end it comes down to an inflation premium for all long term debt and an additional risk premium/credit risk for corporate and mortgage debt. If we go back to a deflationary scare like 2001-02 perhaps treasury bond yields get artificially pushed down again. <These "what if" scenarios such as no one showing up are laughable IMO. If we have a stock panic or housing crash in the US, the very first thing I expect to happen is US investors stepping up to the plate and buying US treasuries in mass.The corporate bond bubble is far bigger than the treasury bubble IMO and once again, if corporates head south in a big way, I expect to see treasuries BOUGHT not sold. I have yet to see one person here talk about the bubble in junk bonds or corporates when the yield between junk and treasuries is insanely low.>