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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (21910)	11/17/2004 12:48:12 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Nov 17 2004 12:08 trotsky (Prechter and gold) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved two weeks ago, Hulbert reported that Prechter's boys had shifted the goal posts on gold AGAIN. as you may recall, the've been steadfastly bearish all the way up from the lows ( 'clear corrective structure....won't trade above XYZ for years to come....new lows absolute certainty...yadayadayada' ) . they defined several ( 3 or 4 ) "we're wrong if it trades above that" points. every time their "we're wrong" point was breached, they then proceeded to redo their counts and shift the target higher. that way they've successfully avoided having to admit that they were wrong, while staying wrong all the same. why am i telling you all this? because i figured if they ever DO capitulate, it'd be a sell signal. so i saw with some interest that two weeks ago, they defined yet another "we're wrong if it trades above that" point - namely $436. so i took a look at their site today to see if they have now finally converted to bulls. i've got good news: they seem to have shifted the goal posts AGAIN ( as incredible as that sounds ) . a blurb on their site talks about how bearish dollar sentiment and how bullish gold sentiment have become, combined with an offer to buy their latest missive in order to find out "what it means". but one can already infer from the blurb that they have changed their mind again, and remain bearish on gold. so no Prechter sell signal yet. also, considering that out of an approx. 11,000 point advance in the Dow from the '74 lows, they were bullish for exactly 2,200 points of that advance and bearish for the remaining 8,800 points, i'm quite heartened that they've decided to play exactly the same game now in gold - this bodes well for the longer term. i must add though that they have a point about current sentiment - it's VERY stretched, especially in the dollar.