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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (16048)	11/17/2004 11:50:06 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. industrial production rose 0.7% in October - Wednesday, November 17, 2004 4:12:10 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- U.S. industrial production rose 0.7 percent in October, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday Meanwhile, capacity utilization rose to 77.7 percent from a revised 77.3 percent for September Economists had been expecting October's production to rise 0.3 percent and capacity utilization to increase to 77.4 percent, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch "The IP report is for the most part a strong one. And strength is fairly well distributed," said Robert Brusca of FAO Economics Industrial production in September rose an unrevised 0.1 percent "This area of the economy had shown the most softness of late, and the strength of the rebound in October, combined with the gain in employment in October and core inflation readings, lead us to believe that the Fed will likely raise rates a further quarter-point on Dec. 14," said John Ryding, economist at Bear Stearns. Ryding said a weak jobs report on Dec. 3 could change that prediction The Fed said part of last month's larger-than-expected increase resulted from a "bounceback" from slowed production in September caused by the spate of hurricanes in the Southeast, "although the exact magnitude of contribution is difficult to estimate." As a result, Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc, said it would be "just as mistaken to extrapolate today's result as it would have been to be overly concerned about last month's 0.3 percent decline in factory output." Over the past 12 months, industrial production has risen 5.2 percent The three major subcategories -- manufacturing, mining and utilities -- each rose 0.7 percent in October Production of consumer goods rose 0.6 percent for the month, after rising 0.2 percent in September October's production of business equipment rose 0.5 percent for a second consecutive month Production of motor vehicles and parts rose 2.3 percent in October. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, production rose 0.5 percent in the month Output of high-technology industries rose 0.7 percent in October, the Fed reported Separately, the Labor Department said higher energy prices drove overall consumer inflation up 0.6 percent in October And in a separate report, the Commerce Department said the nation's pace of constructing new homes increased about 6.4 percent in October to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 2.027 million housing starts.

To: Tommaso who wrote (16048)	11/17/2004 11:52:05 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Core inflation bears watching, Lehman economist says Wednesday, November 17, 2004 2:24:24 PM afxpress.com WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Inflation in core consumer prices is "squarely in the middle" of the Federal Reserve's target zone of 1.5 to 2 percent annualized, said Drew Matus, an economist for Lehman Bros., after the Labor Department said the consumer price index rose 0.6 percent in October, with core prices up 0.2 percent. "The second month in a row of strong core increases likely warrants some increased scrutiny from the Fed as they watch for any sign that things may get worse from here. We think that unlikely." Matus said

To: Tommaso who wrote (16048)	11/17/2004 11:55:31 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

EU may give Greece until 2006 to cut deficit - Greek FM Wednesday, November 17, 2004 2:13:36 PM afxpress.com ATHENS (AFX) - The European Commission may give Greece two more years to lower its budget deficit to below the 3 pct rule, Finance Minister Giorgos Alogoskoufis said Greece could be given until 2006 to lower its budget deficit to below 3 pct of GDP in the event that it is unable to achieve next year's target due to external factors, Alogoskoufis told reporters after attending an ECOFIN meeting earlier this week Greece aims to bring down its budget deficit in 2005 to 2.8 pct of GDP from a targeted 5.3 pct this year =============================================================== To bring these EU budget deficts under control it will take reduced spending or increased taxes or both. Correct? Won't the EU slide immediately into a recession? Might they not anyway? If they do anyway, will that increase the budget deficits or not? Is the Euro really that much of a bargain at these prices? thoughts Haim or anyone? Mish

To: Tommaso who wrote (16048)	11/17/2004 12:05:19 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Sweden´s central bank deputy governor sees risk of sharper dollar correction Wednesday, November 17, 2004 4:16:33 PM afxpress.com Sweden's central bank deputy governor sees risk of sharper dollar correction STOCKHOLM (AFX) - The dollar's adjustment has so far been orderly but the currency faces risk of a "faster and sharper correction" which would "subdue developments internationally," Swedish Central Bank Deputy Governor Irma Rosenberg said in a speech on monetary policy While conceding it is hard to pin down any single factor behind the dollar's decline, Rosenberg noted the large deficits in the US current account and federal budget have come under the spotlight recently "The current account deficit has grown further in spite of the dollar's weakening, and several members of the Federal Reserve Board have publicly commented on the deficits recently. That may have accelerated the course of events. "The US administration has not taken any measures to slow the developments, either. So far the adjustment has been orderly, but it could become a faster and sharper correction, which the Riksbank has long highlighted as a risk. This would subdue developments internationally," she said On the global outlook, Rosenberg said it remains largely unchanged. However she noted that recent developments such as the rising oil price, weakening dollar and declining imports "may imply a slight downward revision" of growth forecasts for industrial countries from those stated in the Riksbank's October inflation report In that report, the Riksbank said international economic activity would continue to strengthen this year and over the next two years. Swedish GDP growth was projected at slightly over 3.5 pct this year and roughly 3 pct in 2005 and 2006 "In the light of the information that has been available up to now, inflation a couple of years ahead seems to be still in line with the target," said Rosenberg. "The Swedish economy will grow faster than its long-term sustainable rate in the coming years. Consequently, we must expect gradually increasing inflationary pressures. This suggests that monetary policy sooner or later will need to be made less expansionary. When this will be appropriate remains to be judged, however," Rosenberg said

To: Tommaso who wrote (16048)	11/17/2004 12:51:13 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Garganas signals ECB unlikely to intervene to halt euro´s rise Wednesday, November 17, 2004 5:42:54 PM afxpress.com Garganas signals ECB unlikely to intervene to halt euro's rise FRANKFURT (AFX) - Bank of Greece governor Nicholas Garganas signalled the European Central Bank is not preparing to intervene in foreign exchange markets to halt the appreciation of the euro against the US dollar "Exchange rate developments are best left to the markets," Garganas, who sits on the ECB's governing council, said in interview with the Financial Times Deutschland to appear tomorrow. The euro hit an all-time high against the US dollar today of 1.3046 usd Garganas said the rise of the euro should not unduly hurt euro zone exports or jeopardise the economic recovery. Export growth depends first and foremost on overseas demand, which remains "favourable", he said. Garganas said European firms are in most cases able to absorb exchange rate effects because they are very profitable