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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neeka who wrote (86718)	11/17/2004 12:56:28 PM
From: Alan Smithee	Respond to of 793838

Final Day of Vote Counting soundpolitics.com Wednesday is the final day of vote counting (until we start the ineluctable recount). Assuming the estimates of uncounted ballots are even remotely accurate (fat chance), and based on the reports and estimates of some King County vote observers (one of which is posted below), here is a flavor of what to expect on Wednesday. This is not a prediction, but the numbers still give a slight advantage to Rossi. Excluding King County, there are said to be approximately 5,100 uncounted ballots -- 1,700 in counties that Gregoire has carried by a narrow margin (about 3%), and 3,400 in counties that Rossi has carried by a wide margin (about 23%). Based on the Sec. of State numbers, about 97% of these uncounted ballots will include a gubernatorial vote. That adds up to about a 730 vote advantage for Rossi. An observer estimates that Wednesday's King County ballots will swing to Gregoire by close to 700 votes. The punch line -- Rossi would widen his lead by 30-40 votes on Wednesday, adding to his current 19 vote lead, for a final victory margin of 50 - 60. Realistically, the underlying data are too rough and the differences are too small to be significant. If one candidate has a numerical advantage, that would be Rossi, but it's too close to call. This table shows how close. Group Estimated Uncounted Votes Approx. / % Lead Approx. / Projected Vote Lead Rossi Counties 3,400 / 23% / +775 Gregoire Counties (Excl. King) 1,700 / 3% / -45 King County(non-affidavit) 800 / 18% / -144 King County (affidavit) 650 -550 Advantage Rossi +36 Posted by Stefan Sharkansky at 11:13 PM \| Comments (9) Categories: 2004 Governor's Race