Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chispas who wrote (16078)	11/17/2004 2:02:41 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- A coalition of U.S. manufacturers said Wednesday that financial market concerns about the swift decline for the dollar are overstated. "The dollar's correction is barely more than half complete," said Frank Vargo, vice president for international affairs at the lobbying group National Association for Manufacturers and chairman of the Coalition for a Sound Dollar. "Pundits have forgotten that the dollar's descent began only after it had soared to abnormal and dangerous heights," he said. Vargo said that at its 2002 peak, the dollar was up 25 percent on its major rivals and is still up 10 percent from where it stood at the start of that climb. A relatively weaker dollar would make U.S. exported goods more attractive to foreign buyers. The dollar hit a record low against the euro, a 12-year low against the Canadian dollar and a more than seven-month low against the Japanese yen.

To: Chispas who wrote (16078)	11/17/2004 2:09:55 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Heinz on Pretcher Date: Wed Nov 17 2004 12:08 trotsky (Prechter and gold) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved two weeks ago, Hulbert reported that Prechter's boys had shifted the goal posts on gold AGAIN. as you may recall, the've been steadfastly bearish all the way up from the lows ( 'clear corrective structure....won't trade above XYZ for years to come....new lows absolute certainty...yadayadayada' ) . they defined several ( 3 or 4 ) "we're wrong if it trades above that" points. every time their "we're wrong" point was breached, they then proceeded to redo their counts and shift the target higher. that way they've successfully avoided having to admit that they were wrong, while staying wrong all the same. why am i telling you all this? because i figured if they ever DO capitulate, it'd be a sell signal. so i saw with some interest that two weeks ago, they defined yet another "we're wrong if it trades above that" point - namely $436. so i took a look at their site today to see if they have now finally converted to bulls. i've got good news: they seem to have shifted the goal posts AGAIN ( as incredible as that sounds ) . a blurb on their site talks about how bearish dollar sentiment and how bullish gold sentiment have become, combined with an offer to buy their latest missive in order to find out "what it means". but one can already infer from the blurb that they have changed their mind again, and remain bearish on gold. so no Prechter sell signal yet. also, considering that out of an approx. 11,000 point advance in the Dow from the '74 lows, they were bullish for exactly 2,200 points of that advance and bearish for the remaining 8,800 points, i'm quite heartened that they've decided to play exactly the same game now in gold - this bodes well for the longer term. i must add though that they have a point about current sentiment - it's VERY stretched, especially in the dollar.