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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (16133)	11/17/2004 7:23:04 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Heinz on the US$, gold, oil, and walmart Date: Wed Nov 17 2004 17:31 trotsky (frustrated@dollar) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved true, they're really in a quandary here - everybody knows the current account deficit must come in, but no-one wants to experience any pain while that happens - which really makes no sense. it also suggests that ultimately, the market will take matters in its own hand ( read: crisis ) . debt monetization is bearish for the currency - since it increases the supply of it. Date: Wed Nov 17 2004 17:17 trotsky (@Walmart) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved furthermore, just why is Walmart so successful? has it held a gun at anybody's head and forced them to shop there? noooo...guess what, people go to shop there because they want to...because they get great deals there, and can buy more and have more choices than they would have elsewhere. but i realize of course that the envious demonization of success has a long tradition...we'll never be free of it. there are always some busybodies who think they must impose THEIR view of how things should be run and interfere with the voluntary transactions between economic agents. at is most extreme, this attitude produces philosophies like communism and fascism...the 'good old days' iow. Date: Wed Nov 17 2004 17:00 trotsky (P. Yorkie) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i agree that oil is in a bull market until clearly proven otherwise...but i don't agree that commodity price rises, even if it's an important commodity such as oil, cause rising inflation ( in the sense of a rising aggregate price level ) . price inflation is caused by inflation of the money supply, not by price signals in a given market that advertise scarcity. broad money supply growth rates are however at 10 year lows - so it seems highly unlikely that inflation is in the cards, and the bond market knows it. of course, i also continue to disagree that gold necessarily requires inflation to do well. if that were true, then why has gold gone down for 20 years, while the Fed inflated the money supply by more than at any time before in history? obviously there are other forces important for gold prices...imo asset protection is THE major motive for buying gold during deflationary eras ( banks can go bankrupt, and bank deposits can disappear overnight...gold can't ) .