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To: Taikun who wrote (56104)	11/17/2004 9:10:10 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

David, over joyed for the precious coal names will study On uranium, Putin announces new logistical capabilities to deliver packages of greetings, adding steering wheel to big rockets can apparantly render the gabillion dollar NMD, not useful to begin with, even less useful going forward ... http://www.stratfor.biz/Print.neo?storyId=239551 Putin's 'New' Missile, Russia's Old Missile Nov 17, 2004 Russian President Vladimir Putin's Nov. 17 announcement that Moscow is developing a type of missile that "will not be possessed by other nuclear powers" sent some in the major media into a frenzy of speculation. The debate centered on whether this new ICBM will initiate a return of Cold War fears over the "balance of terror." Although it is true the ICBM cited has more advanced features than current systems, it is a new version of an older system. This system, which started being used in the 1990s and was planned long before then, is known by the U.S. military and likely already is taken into account in U.S. strategic planning. In other words, the Russians have not been developing new nuclear weapons clandestinely behind the veneer of peace with the United States. Putin's assertion, in fact, likely was designed to prove to his domestic audience that he is serious about restoring Russia's military to its former world-class status. Putin was referring to the Topol M intercontinental ballistic missile (a missile called the SS-27 by NATO). The M in most Russian designations means "modified," indicating that it is a subtype of an existing system -- in this case the SS-25 Topol, which NATO refers to as Sickle. The Topol M, however, is not a modified SS-25, but a different system, the SS-27, that has been under development for quite some time. This also was the case with the Tu-22M Backfire bomber, which the Soviets claimed was a modification of the older Tu-22 Blinder bomber. Although the two have almost nothing in common, Russia called the Backfire a modified system during the second round of the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT II) in the 1970s so it would not be counted as a new system. This method of using semantics so as to avoid violating SALT II with a new system also is being used for the Topol M. When it is fully developed -- Putin said in a few years -- the Topol M will be deployed in multiple versions, each capable of striking anywhere in the continental United States, as are its predecessors. The missile was initially deployed in older underground launchers -- refurbished SS-19 (the NATO reporting name is Stiletto) silos. A road-mobile version that can be launched from a Transporter Erector Launcher was tested in 2000, and is scheduled to become operational in 2004. Putin's comment that no other nuclear power possesses this missile likely is an allusion to the Topol M's supposed Maneuvering Re-entry Vehicle (MARV) capability. Theoretically, MARVs can maneuver during the final stage of re-entry, making them harder for anti-missile systems to defeat. In 1998, the MARV system was tested on the Topol M. Using MARV technology would be a relatively cheap way to counter the National Missile Defense System being fielded by the United States. The Topol M has been operational since late 1997 with regiments of Russia's Strategic Rocket and Space Forces. The Topol M is deployed in four locations: Saratov Oblast, Valday, the Southen Urals and Altay. Putin was speaking at a meeting of the leaders of Russia's armed forces when he referred to the "new" missile, and his comment likely was meant to assure them that Russia is keeping pace -- and even surpassing, in some areas -- the military capabilities of the West. Based on this system, there is no need to begin restocking the Cold War bomb shelters. Copyright 2004 Strategic Forecasting Inc. All rights reserved. Reprint Rights: Articles from Stratfor may not be reproduced in multiple copies, in either print or electronic form, without the express written permission of Strategic Forecasting, Inc. For mass reprint permission or content licensing, please e-mail marketing@stratfor.com for more information.