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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BWAC who wrote (12093)	11/18/2004 9:34:28 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

I expect the huury to get deliveries before end of year (for depreciation benefits) will slowdown early 05 deliveries. Logically they all will be busy installing new equipment purchased. I think we must weather a period of indecision. First clue will be robust electronics sales for Christmas. If strong - that'll build up a backlog. Last year they told me I couldn't get a Samsung DLP TV delivered til February. If we get a repeat of that -in several product categories - will see Capex develop quickly. ASP's should be high and the money for expansion /technology upgrades should be there. LEAN inventories and a high sales rate is the Magic ingredient - I think we are set up for it. Need the consumer and it is a done deal. Most likely have more than enough nervous time to anticipate the move. Especially around Christmas tax selling time in late December. JMHO Bob