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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (12115)	11/18/2004 3:09:18 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 25522

Fab productivity to fall below norms by mid-decade By Mark LaPedus Silicon Strategies 11/18/2004, 1:10 PM ET SAN JOSE, Calif. — Fab productivity is expected to hit the wall and fall below historical patterns by the middle of the decade, prompting the need for faster tools and larger wafer sizes, warned an official from International Sematech on Thursday (Nov. 18). Sematech looks at fab or semiconductor productivity by tracking the decline in terms of the cost-per-transistor level in chip designs. On a historical basis, the cost-per-transistor level has declined by an average of 28 percent over time, said Denis Fandel, project manager of chip-making consortium Sematech (Austin, Texas). But based on current manufacturing technologies, overall IC productivity is expected to slow and fall to the 23 percent level by the middle of the decade, Fandel said. "It doesn't look like we can keep up with productivity trends with the current roadmap," Fandel said during the Global Economic Symposium, which is sponsored by Sematech. The Sematech representative suggested that the industry could move in several directions to close the delta. In the short term, the industry needs a 20 percent boost in terms of IC-equipment throughput and a 5 percent hike in manufacturing efficiencies. This, in turn, would bring the decline in term of cost-per-transistor to the 26 percent level, he said. The shift towards 450-mm fabs is expected to close the delta as well, but these megafabs are not expected to emerge until the 2013 to 2015 time frame. "450-mm will not be introduced fast enough to make a difference," he added.