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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (16229)	11/18/2004 3:23:15 PM
From: zonder	Respond to of 116555

I can't be bothered to dig the data for "how many trillions" were swapped into floating rates, but I imagine that the more intelligent players, if not the majority, have already swapped them back. Or do you think we are the only ones who grok the interest rate tightening environment? :-) Likewise, I don't know "how much of banks' equity is in real estate". If you are interested in shorting something based on this, I suggest you look closely at individual banks for one with high exposure to real estate assets. Otherwise, shorting the whole sector because someone told you banks' equity have lots of real estate can get you a whole lot of grief. As someone who means you well and has had a lot of experience shorting companies, let me give you one advice - short with a view on earnings (rather than asset valuation) and with a time horizon no longer than the next quarter (rather than the year or so that declining asset valuations might take to show on a company's earnings). Do I agree with you that a slowing economy and exposure to real asset a bad thing? Yes. Will I short the banking index because of that? No. I strongly suggest you do the same.