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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: michael97123 who wrote (151929)11/18/2004 2:31:31 PM
From: carranza2  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
Mullahs transparent?

Yes, of course, transparently devious. They are taking the Europeans and the UN along for a ride.

Pakistan has admitted providing nuclear weapon design to NK, Libya and, yes, Iran. The nuclear designs were provided by Khan, whom the Pakistanis will not allow anyone to question.

Meanwhile the UN has taken samples form warehouses located in Dubai which apparently were used to store materials supplied by Khan. The difference is that the UN is talking about materials which could be used to make HEU, not simply designs.

nti.org

And this is exactly what Powell said, something which bears repeating:

“I have seen some information that would suggest that they have been actively working on delivery systems. … You don’t have a weapon until you put it in something that can deliver a weapon,” Powell said. “I’m not talking about uranium or fissile material or the warhead; I’m talking about what one does with a warhead.”

nti.org

Powell also said this:

“I’m talking about information that says they not only have these missiles, but I am aware of information that suggests that they were working hard as to how to put the two together,” Powell added.

Why would the peace-loving Iranians developing a missile designed to deliver a warhead in the first place? Could it be that they have a warhead or expect to have one soon?

One would think that they aren't developing a missile capable of delivering a warhead for grins.

Look at this IAEA report [too long to print here], and if it doesn't scare you concerning Iran's intentions, you have nerves of steel:

nti.org

Naturally, after Iraq, there is a lot of cynicism concerning our claims. Nonetheless, it should be remembered that the dissident group that made the most recent Iranian claim was 100% accurate in uncovering the previously secret heavy water project the Iranians were trying to keep secret:

Here is the best report I've yet seen on the issue, linked through NTI the single best non-proliferation source for laymen around. Please note the boldened part--the Iranians are going to "stop" for three months, then go at it again:

Dissidents Claim Iran Obtained Weapon-Grade Uranium, Bomb Design From Khan

The international nuclear network led by Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan delivered weapon-grade uranium and a nuclear warhead blueprint to Iran, an Iranian dissident group claimed today. The group has provided accurate information about Iran’s nuclear program in the past (see GSN, Nov. 16).

“Khan gave Iran a quantity of HEU (highly enriched uranium) in 2001, so they already have some,” said Farid Soleiman, a spokesman for the exiled National Council of Resistance of Iran.

“I would doubt it was given enough for a weapon,” he added.

The group also claimed that Iran continues to secretly enrich uranium, despite an agreement formalized Sunday with France, Germany and the United Kingdom to suspend such activities.

Soleiman said Khan provided Iran with a Chinese warhead design between 1994 and 1996.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed that Libya acquired the blueprint through Khan’s network, but has been unable to find out whether Iran did so as well (see GSN, Feb. 4).

The National Council of Resistance of Iran is the political wing of the exiled People’s Mujahideen Organization. The U.S. State Department lists both as terrorist organizations (see GSN, Sept. 10).

Soleiman said Iran continues to enrich uranium for military purposes at a site within the city limits of Tehran.

The Center for the Development of Advanced Defense Technology, according to Soleiman, was previously located in Lavizan, where a suspected nuclear site was razed last summer (see GSN, June 29). He said the center had been moved since then.

Soleiman said his group informed the International Atomic Energy Agency by letter of the site a few days ago.

The group first provided accurate information about Iran’s then-undisclosed nuclear program in August 2002 when it revealed details of an enrichment plant at Natanz and a heavy-water facility at Arak. Iran later declared the facilities to the U.N. agency (see GSN, Dec. 13, 2002) (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters/Yahoo!News, Nov. 17).

Plans to manufacture uranium metal could be further evidence that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons capability, Western diplomats and experts said yesterday, Reuters reported.

“This looks like it was a program to make weapons-grade uranium metal disguised as one focused on making 19.7 percent enriched uranium metal,” David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector and head of the Institute for Science and International Security think tank, told Reuters.

An IAEA report released Monday, however, said Iran’s claims that the uranium metal work is for civilian purposes — specifically for use in a laser enrichment program — were “credible.”

Western diplomats, however, were skeptical of the Iranian explanation.

“There’s no reason why these guys should be playing around with uranium metal, and you don’t do laser enrichment to put electricity in a light bulb,” said a Western diplomat on the IAEA Board of Governors.

Other experts also speculated that Iran could be hiding additional nuclear activities.

“Iran could have nuclear activities hidden from the IAEA,” said Jon Wolfsthal, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The picture in Iran is clearer, but far from crystal.”

Several diplomats agreed, saying the IAEA report included several more unexplained findings, including experiments with polonium 210.

Polonium 210 can be used to spark a chain reaction in a nuclear weapon; Iran said it performed experiments with the substance more than a decade ago for use in atomic batteries, according to Reuters.

The U.N. agency said it was “somewhat uncertain regarding the plausibility of the stated purpose of the experiments given the very limited applications of short-lived polonium 210 sources.” (Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Nov. 16).

Meanwhile, a senior Iranian official said today Iran’s pledge to the European powers to suspend uranium enrichment activities was only likely to last a few months, Agence France-Presse reported.

“We will give the nuclear experts of both sides three months. If the work groups reach an agreement, suspension will not make any sense anymore,” nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian said.

“Within three to four months at the most, we should reach a stage where we have an overall conclusion. If they come to no conclusion or say the only visible guarantee would be to halt enrichment altogether, Iran will not accept this,” he added (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 17).

Iranian President Mohammad Khatami warned today that the suspension was subject to further negotiations with the Europeans, scheduled to begin next month, AFP reported.

“[Negotiators] will give the results of their work three months later. If the results are positive, it (the enrichment suspension) would continue,” Khatami said.

“If the other side does not respect its commitments, we will not have any obligations either,” he added.


Dutch Prime Minister and European Union President Jan Peter Balkenende, however, said the enrichment suspension must be verified quickly in order to prevent the Europeans from siding with the United States, which has been pressing for Iran’s activities to be referred the UN Security Council.

“If this [verification] does not happen we will have no option but to go to the U.N. Security Council,” he said (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 17).

The United States, meanwhile, said yesterday that the agreement between Iran and the Europeans was a positive move but that the suspension would have to be implemented and verified, according to AFP.

“This is a useful step,” said State Department spokesman Richard Boucher. “But it doesn’t really make a difference until it’s implemented and verified, and that’s what counts.” (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 17).

Elsewhere, a growing alliance between Iran and China could undercut U.S. influence on Tehran, the Washington Post reported today.

China’s growing energy needs and Iran’s increasing desire for consumer goods have brought the two countries’ interests in line, Iranian officials and analysts have said.

Beijing’s veto at the U.N. Security Council has also become one of the roadblocks to any U.S. hope for implementing sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear program.

China’s burgeoning trade with Iran is also lessening the effect of various U.S. economic embargoes, analysts in Iran said.

“Sanctions are not effective nowadays because we have many options in secondary markets, like China,” said Hossein Shariatmadari, a conservative theorist and editor.

China has also sold advanced military technology to Iran, the Post reported, including missile technology. In response, the Bush administration in April imposed sanctions on Chinese companies producing equipment that could be used to develop weapons of mass destruction.

The growing ties between the two countries could also in part be a direct response to U.S. policy, Iranian analysts said. Washington has pursued a policy of containment of both Iran and China and “that’s created natural allies,” said political and economic analyst Siamak Namazi (Robin Wright, Washington Post, Nov. 17).


nti.org

Oh, yeah. There is going to be a lot of fun in Iran very soon.



To: michael97123 who wrote (151929)11/18/2004 3:01:47 PM
From: carranza2  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
And no one but no one here has figured out that the Iranian pledge of 11/15/04 to suspend enrichment operations was no permanent or even long lasting. It wasn't worth a pile of beans.

The pledge was announced here:

nti.org

<<WASHINGTON — In a deal finalized yesterday, Iran has agreed to suspend all activities related to the production of materials that could be used to manufacture nuclear weapons (see GSN, Nov. 12).

The agreement between Iran and three European Union nations — France, Germany and the United Kingdom — calls for Tehran to maintain the suspension while the parties negotiate a permanent solution to the nuclear crisis that began nearly two years ago when the first detailed reports emerged of an extensive secret Iranian nuclear program (see GSN, Dec. 13, 2002).

In exchange for the suspension, the EU nations have reportedly agreed to stop the issue from moving beyond the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors, a body that could refer the matter to the U.N. Security Council. The United States has urged the board to do just that over a number of meetings in the past year, but yesterday’s agreement would probably wipe out that possibility, the Washington Post reported today. The administration might not even pursue its case at the board’s next meeting, scheduled to begin Nov. 25.

“That’s a decision that will have to be made this week,” a U.S. official told the Post. “But I can’t imagine how anyone could argue to the president the tactical benefits of trying to do that again because the result would be U.S. diplomatic isolation.”

Under the terms of yesterday’s agreement, Iran “has decided, on a voluntary basis, to continue and extend its suspension to include all enrichment related and reprocessing activities.” The agreement specifically bars “all tests or production at any uranium conversion installation,” an issue that has been the recent focus of the nuclear dispute.

News accounts today reported that IAEA inspectors arrived Saturday in Iran on a previously scheduled trip, and would begin to seal and tag Iranian nuclear equipment. They planned to complete that work before the agency’s board meeting next week.

Iran had previously agreed to a more general suspension of nuclear activities, but had interpreted that freeze in a way to allow continued work on converting uranium ore into a gaseous form usable in enrichment centrifuges. The U.N. agency reported today that Iran had processed more than 22 tons of uranium yellowcake this year (see GSN, Oct. 6).

Yesterday’s agreement outlines the structure of future nuclear talks. A steering committee would meet in the first half of December and set up three working groups on political and security issues, technology and cooperation and nuclear issues.

The EU nations have reportedly offered to improve trade and technical cooperation with Iran, and to provide a light-water nuclear power reactor, if Tehran agrees to permanently end its nuclear fuel cycle activities.

IAEA Report

The International Atomic Energy Agency circulated its quarterly report on Iran today, after delaying the release over the weekend for the impending EU-Iran agreement.

While not providing large amounts of new information, the report offers a comprehensive description of Iran’s long-term effort to develop nuclear technology.

“Iran has made substantial efforts over the past two decades to master an independent nuclear fuel cycle. To that end, Iran has conducted experiments to acquire the know-how for almost every aspect of that fuel cycle,” the report says.

The Iranian effort has included uranium mining, ore conversion, uranium enrichment, fuel fabrication, heavy-water production and plutonium separation.

The agency report praises Iran for opening its program to agency inspection, saying, “Since December 2003, Iran has facilitated in a timely manner agency access … to nuclear materials and facilities, as well as other locations in the country, and has permitted the agency to take environmental samples as requested by the agency.”

That cooperation appears to have eased earlier suspicions that Iran had actually enriched uranium to high levels in its prototype facilities. Agency sampling there discovered traces of uranium containing up to 70 percent uranium 235. Weapon-grade uranium is generally described as containing more than 80 percent.

Iran has contended that the uranium contamination was already present when it acquired enrichment centrifuges from a still-unidentified outside source — reportedly the nuclear smuggling network once headed by former top Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan.

The agency report concludes, “The environmental sampling data available to date tends, on balance, to support Iran’s statement about the origin of much of the contamination.”

Despite this positive news for Iran, the agency report complains of past and continuing hindrances and ultimately judges that it cannot “conclude that there are no undeclared nuclear materials or activities in Iran.”


The Iranians were desperate not to have the subject go to the Security Council, so they threw the stupid Euros a sop. Since the IAEA meets on 11/25, it's probably too late to bring the issue before it. Thus, it is unlikely that the Security Council, the only UN body that can do anything substantive about the Iranians, will get the issue before it anytime soon.

Edit: According to the BBC, our friends, Russia and China, were ready to veto any Security Council action, anyway, so the Iranians were safe, though China and Russia would have suffered the embarrassment of having vetoed any SC action in public. I can understand China, which is forging strong commercial links with the Iranians, but I don't understand the Russian stance. Why would a country which is fighting Islamic terrorism want a neighbor armed with nukes and missiles capable of delivering them?

news.bbc.co.uk

So, to thumb its nose to everyone, Iran hinted broadly that the freeze would probably not last more than 3 or 4 months.

“We will give the nuclear experts of both sides three months. If the work groups reach an agreement, suspension will not make any sense anymore,” nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian said.

“Within three to four months at the most, we should reach a stage where we have an overall conclusion. If they come to no conclusion or say the only visible guarantee would be to halt enrichment altogether, Iran will not accept this,” he added (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Nov. 17


nti.org

Anyone who thinks that the Iranians have any intention of stopping is a damned fool. They have not processed 22 tons of yellowcake in order to get fuel for nuclear power plants they don't need. They are drowning in oil. Gasoline must cost a nickel a gallon.

It's going to get very interesting.

I think the 3 month freeze, which is a joke, coupled with Powell's statements, means that the Iranians are probably a lot closer to a deliverable bomb than anyone imagines.