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To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (52448)11/20/2004 3:20:54 PM
From: DanZ  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53068
 
Maybe a health care ETF at my age? I'll take that as an insult. lol

Seriously, thanks for the suggestion. I hadn't considered a health care ETF initially but it looks like a good one to hold for the next year or two, especially since MRK and other health care stocks got whacked recently.

Here's what I came up with. Any opinions? Get rid of some? Too much in any particular area? Need more in other areas? I'm just looking for opinions from others - that's all.

S&P 500          SPY     15%
International EFA 15%
Healthcare XLV 15%
Russell 2000 IWM 10%
Nasdaq 100 QQQ 10%
Emerging Market EEM 10%
Semiconductor IGW 10%
Networking IGN 5%
Individual stocks & Cash 10%


I considered the Ishares S&P 500 ETF (IVV), but opted for SPY because it is more liquid and tracks the S&P 500 better. IVV has slightly outperformed the S&P 500 the last few months, and it could underperform the next few months. I don't understand why an ETF, which is chartered to track the S&P 500, has outperformed its tracking index for more than a year, even if only by a little. That's great if you have been in it the last year, but indicates that the manager is trying to beat the market, which isn't something that I would want to do in a S&P 500 tracking fund.

I believe that semiconductor stocks have bottomed for this cycle, which is why I want 10% exposure to them. I bought a little IGW yesterday and plan to add more over the next few days/weeks to get to my 10% position.

IGN outperformed the S&P 500 earlier this year, then underperformed, and has pulled even. I'm betting that it will outperform the next few months.

Some other ETFs that I looked at include IWD, IWO, IGM, IYE, IYR, IYZ, XLK, XLY, and VGT. I didn't select them for various reasons: price has gone up too much recently, track the SPY/QQQ too closely, top ten holdings overlap other ETFs that I chose, don't like the sector, etc.

The major indexes (SPX, COMPX, DJIA) gave short term sell signals yesterday. I don't think that the decline will last long, but since I think the indexes will trade lower for a few days, I'm going to wait before buying in earnest.

The reason that I asked for a fund or ETF that was net short is because you can't short stocks in an IRA. There are times that I want to short the indexes, and put options aren't a good solution because of their time value. Any suggestions how to short the market in an IRA, other than selling everything?

Thanks,

Dan