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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (152035)	11/19/2004 11:56:33 AM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Greenspan talked about both the trade and budget deficits. In fact he urged that we move into a budget SURPLUS as the best way to reduce the trade deficit. Message 20783056 Now that the election is over he doesn't need to handle the administration's policies with kid gloves. Also, he probably sees the looming crisis next year and wants to safeguard his legacy -- at least verbally.

To: michael97123 who wrote (152035)	11/19/2004 12:29:20 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 281500

Ah, money talk on FADG. It would be off topic except that domestic policy controls foreign policy. Economics. Yes, all may not be lost, but then again, all might be. On the bright side, the entire world will feel the pain, not just the US. Disclaimer: Short DIA (at the open today), closed QQQ long two days ago. Short NQ futures this am following yest intraday test of top (I warned folks about this yesterday here on SI). Am, have been for a while, long gold, and oil again two days ago on the test of bottom in crude intraday. Been selling US$ for weeks. One thing about Bush, he's good for the market in both directions. The realism in Greenspan's talk is surprising, given that none of what he mentions is NEW. Therefore, markets will react a little more strongly here, believing this to be an acceleration of concern on his part. Other former Fed folks and close watchers have been hinting at a rapid devaluation of the US$ as one "solution". May be. Putting the US economy into a recession would reduce oil consumption. I don't doubt that it could come to this. I do not like to harp on oil because it isn't the only major issue, domestic issue - consumption - which drives foreign policy but it is a deadly critical one. And Greenspan is not only worried about trade deficits. Foreign governments hold over half of the US debt right now. That's a lot of paper which could be worth less. If not worthless (unlikely). Anyway... portfolio all green this morning. Can you ask Rice to make threatening noises to Iran please? I'd like to make a another percent gain before the close.