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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (16334)	11/19/2004 3:12:35 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

the process started over a year ago and it was out of the USD and into hard assets and other currencies. Each time there is a relative small readjustment FX volatility increases mostly due to massive hedging of parties. The sellers of hedges need volatility to cover the hedges they sold, so they induce this volatility IMHO the USD is close to balancing out v. the EUR but not other currencies. EZ will have a difficult time to deal with a 1.40EUR level, as they are already out priced themselves at 1.30

To: mishedlo who wrote (16334)	11/19/2004 7:52:47 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

if the dollar doesnt rally on falling bonds then you know we have a bigger problem which is what i expect. there's just too many dollars in the world, most of them borrowed against homes that will collapse in price once rates start rising so it could start a power dive in dollars and bonds ,not to mention the stock market. i guess i dont see the reason why a bond bubble collapse should strengthen the dollars, it could be the opposite because systemic risk will increase exponentially as rates go up. M p.s. gold is just breaking out which doesnt seem like that would happen at a dollar bottom ..