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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roads End who wrote (22104)	11/20/2004 10:59:14 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

I'm coining a new term for "the meaning of gold" in all this. I call it the "Cry Uncle" trade. In otherwords gold is strongly signaling to the market that something is terribly wrong. Further a 2% fed funds rate is totally inappropriate when you have gold spiking higher and higher. The fact that folks are rushing to put billions into the new ETF in short order also is a crack up boom market signal. Message 20784974 Now you add the next oil spike to the equation, and throw in my other canary in the mine shaft: a copper spike that seems to be building again, and we are entering the shit hits the fan stage real soon. This is a period where timing (and luck) is everything. I can certainly envision gold spiking above $500 if the symbiotic trio do absolutely nothing, and I'm just not on their mailing list. It seemed to me that Easy Al is doing some butt covering here. Message 20784113 Perhaps he knows that the Asians are soon to change the rules of the game? Message 20784947 The seasonal pattern is gold friendly through into January, and I don't see the ETF rush ending on Monday. () On the junior front, I am also keeping an eye out for a major munch. Personally I'd like it to be in GBU (NEM has toehold), or CLG (KGC toehold) because I still hold them, and like real windfalls, rather than just trading moves. If that were to happen then we might get a rapid, sharp blowoff in smaller mining shares, so bears watching. The risks are also high because I can smell change in the air, and that means displacement (the ending or alleviation of Dollar Hegemony, would be one, and is absolutely necessary, soon not later). Message 20786301 And when you get a displacement event, the losers are going to be all the speculators that have piled into certain popular trades of the day. And those trades are now so obvious, that you don't want to be in the neighborhood when the rounds start going off from these crazies stop loss orders. I wish I could post a good chart of this to show the timeline, but small and large specs are now: Long gold 212,257 versus 70,223 when we had our great buying opportunity last May. Long 373,996 in the FX subtotal (means long foreign currencies, effectively short USD) versus only 89,369 as recently as 9-14-2004. Long 115,397 in the stock index subtotal versus only 5,653 on 8-24-04. In energy they were long 147,099 on 10-5-2004 (near the peak), now it's down to 62,576, so not a big factor, time to start getting a bit friendlier on energy IMO. Long 26,583 in copper. I consider above 40,000 my SWAG boiling point level on this trade. Short 174,450 in the grain subtotal. () My emotional rule of thumb: when a trade looks one way and obvious to most, time to watch for offside developments that throw a monkey wretch into it. That is especially true of trades one basically called, because you feel it's "yours", that you have ownership, that it's "about you". Those can be the worst, so just remember this maxim, Gold (or whatever) doesn't know you own it, and could care less about you and your world.