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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (16384)	11/20/2004 3:36:36 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Frank Shostak did not label his chart correctly. If I were a betting man, I'd be tempted to get rich on this assumption. We could write to him to find out. The AMS chart shown has to be the rate-of-change of the Austrian Money Supply (ie the velocity or the first derivative) not the Austrian Money Supply. Two things lead me to this conclusion: First, we can refer to their own description. ***** Similar to various popular money supply definitions, money AMS is also presently displaying a visible fall in growth momentum. After rising to 8.2% in July this year, the yearly rate of growth of money AMS fell to 5.8% in November. This visible softening in the growth momentum is likely to undermine various activities that sprang up on the back of the previously rising growth momentum of money AMS. In other words the diversion of investable resources or the diversion of the pool of funding from wealth generating activities toward nonwealth generating activities is likely to ease. *** Second, we can just look at the math: The changes to MZM he outlines should not change the MZM (the Economagic black line) that dramatically in different directions over time. But making the changes he outlines should easily make the Economagic red line into the chart he displays. Maybe the chart below is the Austrian Money Supply and I will be very, very, surprised and interested in learning the what actual changes were made to alter the MZM so much. home.pacbell.net However, it is far more likely that the chart shown is not** the AMS Money Supply as labeled, but is a chart of the Rate of Change of the AMS. .