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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rkrw who wrote (6024)	11/20/2004 11:19:46 AM
From: fred hayes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10345

rkrw: I didn't expect anything, wasn't watching OSIP that closely. But always interested in how markets react in these kinda situations. The press that came out immediately indicated that the details of the approval (and I think they specifically cited the label) could reduce the potential market by half or so. The original expectations may have been silly (I don't know), but that's what I thought happened. It's expectations, not the facts, that mattered. I think the drop was too big to attribute it to selling on the news, but I concede that attributing the problem to the label may not be entirely correct. edit/add: here's a snippet from a release today. ...fell on Friday after the companies priced their new lung cancer drug lower than investors had expected. Analysts also said the drug, Tarceva, may be used on fewer patients than expected because regulators and the companies agreed to include data in the package insert showing the medicine's effectiveness may vary with some patients... >If Elan goes down day one of approval, what will that mean to you?< Now this one has my full attention, and the the short answer is that it would mean nothing by itself. It's sure not uncommon to see a SMALL dip on the news. In Elans case, the price action in the weeks after approval (sitting aside an immediate small hit for selling on news or small relief jump for approval, don't know which) should be little or none if the market expectations for Antegren have not changed. But I think the expectations WILL change unless the data and label are disappointing. I'm confident that the market's sales projections for Antegren are too low, by alot. They are sticking with numbers like $1.5 to 2 billion. Elan is talking about moving several hundred thousand (KM's words when asked about drug launch)patients to Antegren. You can bet there will be plenty of adjustments in price targets coming up (based on, say, 300 thousand patients times $20 thousand within a few years), IF all goes well that is... fred