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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: seventh_son who wrote (32547)	11/21/2004 6:44:02 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 39344

<I think that you are making a good case for foreigners to invest in a US mining or oil stock. > Or any asset expected to do well under a "given economic scenario" which includes a falling dollar. Here's a completely unthought out list of picks and pans from me: * Any US denominated debt: SELL WITH BOTH HANDS * Assets expected to increase directly in $US price due to a falling dollar: BUY WITH BOTH HANDS * Companies who's value in $US are expected to remain unchanged over time with currency fluctuations, sell. * Companies who's value in $US are expected to fluctuate with currency moves: Buy * Highly leveraged companies with LT duration BUY [ceteris paribus] * Highly leveraged companies with ST duration SELL YESTERDAY [ceteris paribus] Of coures there is an entire spectrum... and one can argue that ALL or MOST US equities should do well with a falling dollar, but IMO you need domestic inflation on top of that to insure that scenario. In this phase of the falling dollar I think you would have to stick with the 'buy with both hands' group... which would be assets directly priced internationally where falling US demand due to $US price increases would be limited... ie. YOUR picks of commodities. I'd add that given the amount of $US debt held by foreigners there is little chance of steming a flight out of US assets in general. JMO of course. DAK