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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (14257)	11/20/2004 8:37:10 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Respond to of 52153

<<"instead of the $1 billion range some investors were guided to by some analysts.">> Almost ALL analysts. If Irresa sale is any indicator than $400-500 M for NSCLC (current label) is right one from start, imo. Miljenko PS: Thanks for respond on DNDN issue, I have no patience.

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (14257)	11/20/2004 9:00:39 PM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 52153

I assume their are other cancer uses for Tarceva. But if the approved use initially is lung cancer and it can do $500 MM in revs, that would imply a multiple of 12x approved uses peak sales for OSIP (I assume 50/50 split but do not know as I do not follow OSIP). Granted peak sales could be much higher with other cancers and OSIP may be close on other drugs, but I am trying to get a quick reference point on how overpriced/underpriced ELN might be. Applying that same 12x to $1 billion of revenues (ELN's half)yields $12 billion, about where ELN trades today when the recovery convert is converted. At that time ELN will also be about debt free on a net debt basis, similar to OSIP. I am ignoring any value for either ELN's and OSIP's current revenues as the market likely pays little for these. Jon