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Non-Tech : The Woodshed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: akjim99 who wrote (16913)	11/21/2004 3:25:46 AM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 60907

I go in and peruse his site now and then. I have been following C and JPM, waiting for good short ops, for quite a while. I missed both at the top, but I think JPM looks pretty good from here, for more down. It is charting a nice EW pattern down so far, from its early Oct high, and now would be in a iii down. C doesn't look to hot either. I think I'll leave it alone and see what happens at 43. If it breaks this area it is going down quite a ways further. Should get a bounce there. I have most of my money in JPM DEC 40's and am well ahead. They've save my arse on my poots this go, as I had some Ebay Nov's and JPM Nov's that I took a hosing on. I am adding Jan's, 37.50's and 35.00's. Going to try and keep a close eye on them. Ops - if you hit it good on less then 50% of what you pull the trigger on, you will still do okay. I don't have time to post any charts this evening, but both C and JPM are breaking LT uptrends. I don't think this bodes well for the general markets, IT. However, if you believe in EW, both C and JPM appear to have completed 5 wave A up patterns, off their big lows. In the longer term this is not good for the general market bears. Longer term the implication is that following a decent multi month correction here, both will put in another 5 wave up pattern, that could take both to new all time highs. The Nasdaq appears to be in a similar pattern, without much of an alternate. Nasty however has not necessarily topped in its A up yet (off its big low), and after a correction I doubt it goes to a new all time high. But it will certainly go much higher. ST I think things are getting stretched here, maybe fairly stretched. If they are and we correct, I don't really know what to expect. There appear to be more signs that a slowdown is coming, so I still expect a very good general market swoon sometime next year. McHugh - I don't follow him much. His preferred longer term counts are always super bearish, seemingly in about everything. It appears he has yet to catch on to the implication mentioned above as well, which puts a nix on all his crash counts. I don't agree with him on his longer term DOW count from the get go, I don't think it did a Big 1 down, I have it as a A down. I don't agree with his HUI count at this point. I don't agree with his dollar count either. Guess I don't agree with him on much. In his defense he does show alternates, but his alternates are obviously not his favs. Who is right and who is wrong? Time will show. I am not sure I understand why everyone thinks the HUI is lagging and not doing well. It is in the middle of a very nice uptrend channel. It looks to have more to go to me. I have it in a vth wave up, and a minor ii correction within that vth wave up, the latter about to end. My target is 316 or so, but I will be watching 260 and 284 areas with interest, in particulur 284. Until there is some serious attempt for a break in the uptrend channel I don't see any reason to pull too much hair out. I still think the HUI is going much much higher, probably over 400, just how long it will take to get there I don't know. If the longer term extended wave counts work out it has this upwave to finish, one major correction, and one more upwave, to hit the top of the primary. Looks to me like a good guess for a top would be in late '06 or early '07. I would wager a little this will also approximate a huge top in the general markets. Actually I think the pm action has been decent. A lot of consolidation continuing as we move up, which should help to keep things from over heating, and keep it running longer. This is what we pm's bulls really want. Stretch it out. My holdings are slowly moving out, one by one. Do you happen to have the weightings in the HUI? Is it market cap weighted?

To: akjim99 who wrote (16913)	11/23/2004 9:16:34 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60907

Interesting possibility on the SPX as well. You asked me a question the other day, so I decided to go back and look at some things. A lot of folk put the Big Bottom in Oct of 02. That does not necessarily have to represent the EW bottom. In fact, after looking, I doubt it is in the Dow or the Spx. Re the latter as shown here I have an EW bottom in March of 03. ttrader.com This would also imply that the SPX is in a 5 wave A of a higher order B up, with the 5th wave of that A still in progress. If the SPX were to top in mid '05, as per a possibility shown in the NDX, then it too will go quite a bit higher, before this A tops. The longer term implication is also ominous for the bears. Another 5 wave brother up to this A is yet coming, per this scenario, and the SPX is going much much higher. Perhaps even to a new high. When ... I think a big top is reached late '06 or early '07 area.