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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (56205)	11/21/2004 5:14:44 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

<I find it funny that there are still folks around making fun of gold, taunting gold as a piece of inherently worthless lump of element on the periodic chart, dug up by mining firms or panned by holiday-makers, and then buried in the vaults to mark the passage of time. I suspect the denigrators of physical gold will learn, again, as their ancestors did once before, and several times before that :0)> Jay, life is for the living. If I could stash me and some gold in a cryogenic chamber, that might make some sense [if I could also cryogenically store my friends, family and existing surroundings, so that my memory and methods have some meaning when defrosted]. I could come back at a much better time, when the present Carthagian circumstances have resolved, assuming that they are indeed Carthagian circumstances and not as they appear to me as very enjoyable days of our lives, which just happen to fit the way we are. Which is not to deny that fleeing Carthage before repricing is an excellent idea. But I remain unconvinced that we are anywhere near such desolate circumstances. By and large, things are looking very hunky dory to me. If they seem likely to not be, I will be taking the appropriate steps, which are good long ones. You are quite right that the Carthagians would do better to appear now from cryogenic storage, clutching their gold talisman. But that's not how human DNA works. We are not time travellers. We are stuck in our present era and have to make the best of it. Which means taking our chances with all the dangers and opportunities. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (56205)	11/21/2004 5:29:53 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

European governments are selling the jewels of grand ma because they can't increase interest rates. Like Jay, corretcly put, not because Gold will worthless.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (56205)	11/21/2004 5:39:03 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

A falling greenback is a godsend to nations like Argentina, Colombia and Uruguay, where over half the foreign debt is still set in dollars or else tethered to interest rates that closely track the greenback. Latin America: Shedding Bad Habits The falling dollar should have the region in a funk. But trade flows remain strong, and a weak greenback cheapens debt. Nov. 29 issue - For Latin Americans, the dollar has always been a mixed blessing. When the greenback is cheap, consumers splurge on imported goodies and take their holidays in Paris or Disney World—even as the region's trade balances go south. By rights, exporters ought to be in a funk—not least because the United States is their best customer. But that's not the case. In fact, exports are surging from Montevideo to Mexico City, buoyed by a resilient world economy and handsome prices for commodities like coffee, iron ore, oil and copper. Brazil is expecting a record $33 billion trade surplus for 2004, while one of every $10 generated in Argentina this year will come from exports. The favorable trade winds are driving a hemispheric recovery that will see the 34 nations of the Caribbean and Latin America expand by 4.7 percent this year, according to the World Bank. What's more, in a region where prices are often tagged to the dollar, stronger local currencies will help staunch inflation. "No one can complain that the weaker dollar has made them uncompetitive," says Ricardo Amorim, Latin America analyst for the German bank WestLB. "What might otherwise be a problem has turned into an opportunity." Easy money has long been Latin America's fatal attraction. During the 1990s, the region's businesses welcomed a tide of dollars, euros and yen that sloshed around the globe. And often, governments propped up their currencies through unrealistic exchange rates. Along came the international financial contagion, and investors fled from developing countries in droves. One by one enfeebled Latin economies buckled and were forced to devalue their currencies. Painful as they were, the devaluations made the region's exports more competitive. However, the debt burden spiked overnight as nations found they needed to make three or four more reais, escudos, bolivares and pesos to pay back every dollar they owed. Only lavish bailouts from international lenders rescued Brazil and Mexico from collapse. With the region on the rebound, fortunes are beginning to turn. Flush with export revenues, Latin governments and businesses are taking advantage of the weaker dollar to pay off their foreign loans. A falling greenback is a godsend to nations like Argentina, Colombia and Uruguay, where over half the foreign debt is still set in dollars or else tethered to interest rates that closely track the greenback. (It's not such a boon for Brazil: two years ago 40 percent of Brazil's then $250 billion foreign debt was tied to the dollar. Now, only 12 percent is, while total foreign debt has fallen to $212 billion.) Such exposure could still spell danger in a volatile world economy. Experts say that a collapsing dollar could send shock waves through emerging markets, and perhaps prove disastrous in Latin America. "A sharper fall of the dollar could unbalance the region in a serious way," says Amorim. "That could force the U.S. to raise interest rates faster as investors shift to Europe, and severely reduce capital flows to Latin America." The good news is that the region's economies may be in better shape than ever to deal with a downturn. Latin America's hard-currency debt, though steep, is not increasing, despite the allure of cheap international lending rates and a new group of left-leaning governments who would seem inclined to big spending. "Latin America finally seems to be shedding its worst habit," says Alberto Bernal, an emerging market specialist for IdeaGlobal, a New York-based consultancy. "You don't have to crash to learn." That augurs well for nations where dollars have always been spent more than saved. infobae.com

To: TobagoJack who wrote (56205)	11/21/2004 8:10:46 AM
From: Condor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Contemplating the recent high profile emergence of China, it leaves me wondering "So up until a year or two ago, were we to believe China was asleep and suddenly one day they woke up and decided to consume all the worlds commodities?" It amazes me at the rapid (immediate) huge turn of events that occur globally. Canada's dollar dragged its ass for 15 years then one day it is suddenly worth 25% more. US housing collapse a possibility...you bet. Gold as insurance...you bet. C