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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taikun who wrote (16463)	11/21/2004 7:05:31 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Is this actually Marc Faber's original comment where so many people have claimed he said the U.S. money supply is declining? Concerning the US dollar, much further weakness would somewhat surprise me because, as can be seen from figure 2, US money supply has not been growing much since the month of May of this year. If so, his comments have been wildly misrepresented. "Has not been growing much" is a horse of a far different colour than "has been declining". I can safely say that "airplanes in flight spend most of their time not gaining much altitude". But it would take a peculiar person, who upon reading my comment, to excitedly call 911 to report an imminent airplane crash. .

To: Taikun who wrote (16463)	11/21/2004 7:41:06 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Currency is only 10% of the monetary aggregates. We saw a strong rise in the demand for US dollar currency prior to Y2K and also prior to the change over to the Euro. That rise prior to the change over would have been your illegal money from Europe or the EURO doubters. The dollar exchange also benefited because large amounts of money were changed into dollars prior to the Euro swap out just so it wouldn't have to be accounted for in the native country since European officials were using the swap to flush out illegal money. Certainly of the 692 billion dollars in US currency, a lot of that is used for illegal or foreign transactions, or dollarization. How much cash do you carry? For legal transactions we're fast approaching a completely cashless world. I think the dollar is approaching a bounce point but smarter people than me have been humbled by currency movements. Like AG suggested the other day, guessing which way a currency will go in the short term approaches that of predicting the outcome of a coin toss.