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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CapitalistHogg™ who wrote (16466)	11/21/2004 4:49:34 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 116555

they started bellowing about oil when it busted 43 dollars or 44 -- and haven't shut up about that yet. But what does it mean to be a 'good' contrarian -- it's NOT simply disagreeing with what is the common expectation -- you could have gone short tech or internets on that thesis in the middle of '99 or earlier and got one very severe a$$ kicking. We remember some famous folks of SI that did just that -- one poster I remember in particular lost it even earlier -- thinking the sentiment was overly bullish or that it was reaching a crescendo -- do you remember a poster Joe G? Do you remember 1998?? Member 1785636 I am not posting this to malign him at all -- I still think the fellow was highly intelligent and well studied on the markets. And he wasn't the only one fooled in 1998 -- I had several large winning put positions -- which I "redeployed" into the mammoth liquidity inspired rally that Greenspan launched that year. Lost most of the profits. My advice is simple -- don't go long the dollar here. If you don't want to be short it -- that's fine, but don't go long. For any chance of a reconciliation or recovery here the dollar HAS to move down. That's a fact, jack.