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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CapitalistHogg™ who wrote (16477)	11/21/2004 7:16:37 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

The other factors are a demograph problem in Europe bigger than ours and and a housing bubble in the UK that has popped (ours has not yet but will) Quite possible the UK and possibly the EU will be cutting as the US is still trying to raise or possibly goes on hold. Mish

To: CapitalistHogg™ who wrote (16477)	11/21/2004 9:45:40 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 116555

short term rates have been increased by the Fed and the dollar has continued to fall. The Fed is not going to raise rates fast enough to support the dollar -- it would collapse the economy -- real rates will stay negative, even if all the increases implied now are carried out. For the intermediate term -- it is more important what foreign CBs do and especially the world herd reaction to what they do. If the ECB intervenes, it may make the fall quicker -- at least if they are vocal about it. Longer term the dollar has nowhere to go but down.