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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (152254)	11/21/2004 5:52:11 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

That's a telling statement. However given the current environment and the actors in Washington it would seem that Iran has little choice but to secretly continue weapons development. Even though Iran and Iraq can't be compared directly (Iran is not nearly as weak militarily as Iraq was either at Gulf War I or Iraq II), parallels in the US approach to Iran now certainly exist. We are currently in the loud barking stage. Next will follow the token call upon the UN to "do something" and for Iran to comply. And after that will follow the surprise airstrike, which, of course, will not surprise one observer in the world. Iranian planners must know all this, and must be looking at their options and planning for contingencies. What choice do they have? Only two: - "trust" the US and accept at face value the US (and UN) position that if they stop all development on nuclear weapons that they'll be left alone; however accepting this is difficult, because Iraq actually was complying and look what happened to them, or, - prepare for being attacked. Pre-select targets for their missiles. Now if we learn that the Energy Secretary has made a surprise clandestine trip to Tehran, I might be prepared to believe that the US is doing something diplomatically, albeit at the point of a gun. ;-)