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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (16528)	11/22/2004 7:53:12 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Bank of Japan´s Fukui says plunging dollar could be ´big concern´ - report Monday, November 22, 2004 7:58:13 AM afxpress.com Bank of Japan's Fukui says plunging dollar could be 'big concern' - report TOKYO (AFX) - The Financial Times quoted central bank chief Toshihiko Fukui as saying the plunging dollar could become a "big concern" for Japan, and the US needs to tackle the problem by addressing its massive twin deficits In an interview with the British financial daily, the Bank of Japan governor said the US should not choose the "quick fix" of currency adjustment but should reduce its soaring budget and trade deficits through other means "From the cyclical perspective, there is no reason the dollar should be declining," Fukui said, asserting the US economy is stronger than that of Japan or Europe The dollar is hovering around a four-and-half-year low against the yen, dipping briefly below 103 yen early today for only the second time since March 2000 Japan's economic recovery hopes are pinned largely on exports, and a weak dollar versus the yen makes its products more expensive abroad and slashes the value of profits earned abroad Fukui reiterated his view that Japan's recovery remains on track, despite data showing the economy barely grew in the July-September quarter. Next month the government is expected to release revised data, computed under new methodology, showing the economy actually shrank last quarter "We are seeing some disturbances," Fukui said. "Our concern is whether this temporary pause is really short-lived or not "I am very confident that the current recovery phase is qualitatively different from the previous two recovery episodes in the 1990s because restructuring by the private sector has been progressing very rapidly and innovation by the corporate sector is very visible," he said

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (16528)	11/22/2004 8:01:05 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

OUTLOOK Euro zone figures to show confidence on the slide again Monday, November 22, 2004 7:58:18 AM afxpress.com BRUSSELS (AFX) - Euro zone figures due out in the coming week will show business confidence resuming its slide, reflecting concern over slowing growth and the strong euro, economists said The key release for the week -- Germany's IFO business climate index for November -- is forecast to dip following last month's rise "Last month, the IFO business climate index edged higher against forecasts of a decline," HSBC economists said "In November, we expect the overall IFO business climate index to fall from 95.3 to 94.3, reflecting such factors as the rise of the euro and disappoint economic releases," they said Bank of America economist Lorenzo Codogno agreed "Following the significant decline in the ZEW index recorded in November, we think there is a good chance to see an equally weak IFO reading," Codogno said "Slower global demand, domestic demand not picking up, higher oil prices and the sharp appreciation of the euro all combine to enhance the downward risk of the outcome of the IFO survey," he said Belgium's closely-watched business confidence indicator for November is also forecast to have deteriorated markedly "The business confidence index was unchanged last month. But we expected a renewed fall in the index on the back of the continued slowdown in Belgium's EU trading partners and further euro strength," Royal Bank of Scotland economists said Equally, the forecasts for Italian business confidence in November just as gloomy Royal Bank of Scotland economists noted that the Italian index stagnated last month, with slowing growth in the country's trading partners and high oil prices dampenening manufacturers' confidence "These influences will have continued to weigh on confidence this month, as will the record high euro-dollar exchange rate," they said Among other data, the breakdown of German GDP figures for the third quarter is likely to confirm slowing export growth in the euro zone's biggest economy "The export boom in Germany is ending and we expect a sizeable shift in the net export contribution to GDP growth from a positive 0.5 pct in the second quarter to a negative 0.3 pct in the third quarter," Codogno said "Consumption should have remained weak, posting a meagre 0.1 pct quarter-on-quarter rise," he said HSBC economists agreed that "net trade generated a significant negative effect" in the third quarter And Royal Bank of Scotland economists said the figures are "likely to show that the slowdown (in GDP growth) was due principally to flagging net exports" They added that the "global soft patch and strong euro are finally taking their toll"

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (16528)	11/22/2004 8:06:23 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

EU´s Barroso calls for strong growth, better productivity Monday, November 22, 2004 7:58:36 AM afxpress.com 2004-11-22 07:58:36 EU's Barroso calls for strong growth, better productivity PARIS (AFX) - New EU Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso called today for "stronger growth and better productivity," warning that otherwise European countries would be unable to maintain their high standards of social protection and meet environmental demands As the new commission was set to take office in Brussels, its chief told French daily Les Echos: "Either we adapt or we lose the economic battle," adding, "The ageing of our populations and the growing competition from the United States and the developing countries force us to react." Calling for "a new balance between economic dynamism and social cohesion", Barroso said this was "not to question our model but on the contrary to keep it while modernizing it." The priorities of his mandate, he said, were "everything that is linked to growth, everything to do with freedom and justice and which enables the strengthening of Europe's role in the world." The commission, he added, "can be a catalyst for reforms. We are there to help the 25 member states and if they want, we can win the battle for Europe's competitiveness." ha/bm/cmr For more information and to contact AFX: www.afxnews.com and www.afxpress.com

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (16528)	11/22/2004 8:10:35 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Forex - Dollar remains weak after G20 meeting showed US unconcerned by falls Monday, November 22, 2004 9:47:40 AM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX) - The dollar remained weak against major currencies after the weekend's meeting of G20 ministers confirmed that the US is little concerned by the fall in its currency and is unlikely to intervene to support it Comments from Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan suggesting that a further depreciation in the US currency may be necessary to bring down the US current account deficit, sent the dollar plummeting on Friday. The US currency fell to new record lows against the euro and year-lows against the yen last week, and with little on the economic calendar today, the bearish sentiment is expected to remain intact "Following Greenspan's comments on Friday ... and the message from the G20 meeting that no support for the dollar can be expected from the US authorities, the recent currency trends are likely to continue in the near-term," Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein analysts said The dollar's sharp falls leave the market nervous, however, about the potential for intervention by the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan to prop up the dollar as their economies suffer from weaker exports "The political pressure for intervention is already building, as is the economic imperative," said Daragh Maher, currency strategist at CALYON He added that the dollar's recent sharp move downwards may lead to fears of the sell-off generating "excessive momentum" This week will see the release of business confidence indicators from Belgium and Italy, as well as the key German Ifo index on Thursday, which should gauge the level of concern about the higher euro and rising oil prices Elsewhere, the pound weakened, continuing last week's falls after a raft of economic data suggesting that higher borrowing costs are taking their toll on the economy, particularly on the housing market, cementing expectations that interest rates will not rise any further A speech this morning by the Bank of England's deputy governor Andrew Large may give more weight to this view.

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (16528)	11/22/2004 8:29:36 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Heads up for pension heartaches moneycentral.msn.com Broken promises come in many shapes and sizes, but they have one thing in common: disappointment. I believe many of the nation's pensions will be a source of that, rather than security, in the future. Beneath the surface of today's financial environment, there is a huge, smoldering retirement problem, in addition to the fact that Social Security will in essence be unable to satisfy its promises. I hope I'm wrong, because I think it would be morally reprehensible if a lot of these promises are broken. But as part of the corporate abdication of responsibility that's gone hand-in-hand with the mania (and a similar abdication of responsibility on the part of the Fed), I think many of these pension plans will not be able to withstand a 30%-to-40% drop in the stock market, which I still expect to see at some point.