To: Jack Hartmann who wrote (499 ) 11/30/2004 6:34:27 PM From: richardred Respond to of 7265 RE:GTW SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Personal computer stocks were mostly in the red Tuesday after technology research firm Gartner said it expects three of the top 10 PC makers to quit the business by 2007. Gartner (IT: news, chart, profile) Vice President Leslie Fiering said slow growth rates and thinning profit margins will likely lead to consolidation in the PC market in coming years. Fiering estimates that PC unit shipments will average 5.7 percent annual growth from 2006 to 2008, half the 11.3 percent average of 2003 to 2005. Fiering said the current PC replacement cycle should still lead to strong growth in 2005, but leaner times lie ahead. "The end of the replacement cycle is likely to strain viability for even the largest PC vendors in 2006 and beyond," Fiering said. Fiering said Dell Inc. (DELL: news, chart, profile) is the only PC maker to consistently turn a profit with its PCs in the past few years. In her report, Fiering estimates that the PC divisions of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ: news, chart, profile) and IBM (IBM: news, chart, profile) "are vulnerable to being spun off if their drag on margins and profitability are deemed too great by their parent companies." Gartner ranks Dell as the world's top PC maker, followed by H-P, IBM, Fujitsu (FJTSY: news, chart, profile)/ Fujitsu Siemens, Toshiba (TOSBF: news, chart, profile), Acer, NEC (NIPNY: news, chart, profile), Legend, Gateway Inc. (GTW: news, chart, profile) and Apple Computer (AAPL: news, chart, profile). Gartner's PC outlook comes on the heels of a September report in which the company estimated that 40 percent of the current semiconductor companies could leave the market within 10 years. See full story. Among PC stocks, Dell, Apple, IBM and H-P all posted losses Tuesday. Gateway, however, climbed more than 10 percent to a 52-week high of $6.81. The company continued to benefit from Monday's Piper Jaffray report in which analyst Les Santiago raised his price target on Gateway to $8 a share from $7. Santiago also said Gateway appeared close to adding a retail partnership with Wal-Mart's (WMT: news, chart, profile) Sam's Club stores or with Circuit City (CC: news, chart, profile) in the next two months.cbs.marketwatch.com ;