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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (12177)	11/22/2004 11:44:27 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 25522

Hi Cary, To the degree that dollar parity stops market share losses our manufacturing in at least the Midwest and I'm sure more regions will not be shuttered and outsourced. These jobs may very well return from those countries who have enjoyed a false devalued currency.These are primarily Asian countries. To the degree that cost of labor is equalized the logistics expenses add extra expense to the outsourcing benefits. The nations capacity utilization only needs about a 10% increase and we will be at full employment and we'll be pushing wage inflation on top of resource/energy inflation. A nice slow ramp up will be the most desirable and most predictable. It doesn't call for watershed events but rather a general improvement and I believe the ideal scenario will be reality. It also fits quite nicely into your extended cycle peak. More people working - ALL wanting some or all of an ever increasingly wide array of electronic enabling devices will lead to a substantial increase in overall end user demand. Perhaps the most current example is the demand of the I-Pod and how it is driving Apple to new highs. Who would've made that call 2 years ago? Bob