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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rocket Red who wrote (32676)	11/23/2004 10:53:38 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 39344

Rocket, There is a platoon of ships coming from the ME that will create an oil glut in the US. Consumers already cutting back leisure driving. Yield curve is now flattening, possibly indicating recession in 6 months. The stock market may start to price that in soon. USD depreciation means that oil at USD48 is really oil at USD43 for CDN oil producers,if you compensate for appreciation in CAD vs USD. CDN oil industry is seeing lower net CAD revenues for oil. US-invoked global recession will decrease demand for commodities, decrease trade, decrease energy demand across the board. I am moving to more cash and physical gold/silver, taking some profits in energy. Energy is good long-term, but near term there will be some volatility. If oil doesn't surpass $55 on its next try, that could be a double-top and ensuing oil prices in the low 40s, which would the the high 30's (adjusting for CAD appreciation). Canada is #1 supplier to US. Canada is also talking about sanctions on the US re: softwood, and linking those sanctions to other commodities. Some Canadian politician unwisely started Canada down this road. Bottom line: things could start getting really ugly very soon. When in doubt: panic first, ask questions later. (The coal juniors are most of my junior positions outside of gold) American consumers are already turning off the heaters and wearing sweaters. Not good for energy demand! David