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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zebra4o1 who wrote (22405)	11/24/2004 2:55:11 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Roach is not a perma-bear. For instance he was upbeat during Asian crisis in 1998. morganstanley.com

To: zebra4o1 who wrote (22405)	11/24/2004 3:18:41 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 110194

Dr. Roach: In the following post, I jokingly referred to Roach as a "perma-bear" ... and then quickly added that it was not really true. Actually, Roach has been bullish for most of his career (like me). Message 20798457 (see link for chilling comments from Krugman) There is an old Wall Street similitude that older drivers are more cautious because they have seen more accidents (referring to older analysts / economists). Maybe that is true for Roach and others including myself, but I think his arguments are solid. With other mainstream voices now cautioning about a possible impending crisis, including Volcker, Krugman, and even Greenspan a little, I think Roach's concerns (like those of many posters on this thread) are starting to gain traction. That is a good thing, because the earlier we recognize the problem, the better chance we have of fixing it with minimal dislocations. Of course that assumes that our mendacious, incompetent, ideologically driven administration will be able to recognize the problem before it becomes a full-blown crisis ... unlikely.