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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (12197)	11/24/2004 10:15:54 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 25522

IC-equipment vendors to hit bottom in mid-2005 Silicon Strategies 11/24/2004, 6:15 PM ET SAN JOSE, Calif. — Semiconductor equipment vendors are not expected to hit the bottom in terms of a lull in orders until mid-2005, according to an analyst with Adams Harkness Inc. (Boston). Amid a lull in the IC market, North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted a book-to-bill ratio of 0.96 for October, up from the revised 0.94 figure in September, according to the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group on Monday (see Nov. 22 story). "While the book-to-bill showed slight improvement month-over-month in every segment, we do not believe this to be a turning point or a trend going forward," said Avinash Kant, an analyst with the firm.. "We believe October-ending quarter for bellwether [Applied Materials Inc.] helped orders, and expect book-to-bill to decline further over the next 2-3 months." There is more bad news. "We expect further declines in orders in the December. and March quarters and believe orders will likely trough by mid-2005," Kant said.

To: Kirk © who wrote (12197)	11/25/2004 12:06:01 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "A chart worth 1,000 words" You are aware, I trust, that the whole chart merely reflects the choice of the starting point and starting price. What you call "out perform" is merely greater volatility caused by picking a much lower starting point. It is not surprising that LRCX was much lower. During the years from the peak in 1995 to the trough in 1998, your chart's starting point, LRCX had sufficient losses to wipe out 1/2 of its book value. I believe that this period marked the end of LRCX's leadership in the semi-equip business. New management from AMAT has made the operation efficient and has allowed the company to treat etch as a cash cow, but I believe the future for LRCX is different from the futures for AMAT, KLAC, and NVLS.