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To: LLCF who wrote (32750)11/24/2004 10:04:33 PM
From: Taikun  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 39344
 
<I agree with your long [decades] term prognosis... but the adjustment isn't just going to happen willy nilly. This is going to be ugly and you need a MUCH lower $US over time due to the debt racked up.>

DAK, My main points are:

-big ticket US exports like military equipment and Boeing planes are way cheaper than 3 years ago under a decliningt dollar

-some production will revert back tot he US, maybe not lighters but maybe furniture (look how protectionist the EU and Japan are for ideas on how a mature economy behaves)

-the idea that you can somehow 'escape' the coming melee by being in the SFr or Chinese stocks is flawed because this is, IMO, a global problem. There may be pockets of safe havens, but not many.

Canada is being touted by many, but tourism and the wood sector are already hard hit and I'm not sure how profitable Ontario auto mfgs will be with the CAD up almost 40% in 3 yrs.

David