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To: Proud Deplorable who wrote (32813)	11/25/2004 9:31:26 PM
From: Lhn5	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

<<Highly unlikely because American consumers will simply pay the higher prices for necessities and pay by cash, not credit, and stop buying houses as investments and cars etc. it will happen. But reverse? You are VERY naive. Let me tell you something.....if you live in the USA go out for a drive around your town and tell me what percentage is obese. Obesity is a recent phenomenon and comes from emotional eating which is caused by depression often due to inability to cope with the realities of our world as it pertains to their own personal circumstances>> Well no one in the US has to worry about competing with anyone with thought processes like you. That is the most insane collection of bs I have ever seen. <<America is a depressed nation and its people are so demoralized at this point that they are essentially spiritually dead and that translates into a poor work ethic. Too much excessive debt and getting everything ones heart desires for little work to justify this lifestyle has made 2 whole generations lazy, fat, slothful and sleepy.>> Yeah, right. Who will eventually make the hydrogen economy a reality? Or some other, not yet thought of technology? And when you talk about the USA, are you talking about some monolithic inanimate entity? The USA is several hundred million people, all different from one another. I could write more, but why bother.

To: Proud Deplorable who wrote (32813)	11/26/2004 2:30:39 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

Ralph, Well if you think the US won't reverse, even though it has the biggest market in the world (and remember demand is half the supply/demand equation) then that is fine, it is only one of the scenarios. However, if the US does not pick up do you see the ROW replacing US consumption? I don't. For all America's faults, and while they consume more than other nations, at the corporate level some sectors can be pretty darn competitive (compared to Japan, for example). I suppose I was trying to be positive, but if you insist: OK, we get major US decline, followed by WW decline on back of credit bubble and currency deflation. High commodity prices cycle through to high inflation. Consumers clamp shut. (By the way, I've seen it before in Japan, I was there 1988-98) and businesses start winding up. But, Japan had domestic savings, so they survive. If that is the case, we could enter the 50-60 yr long Kondratieff long wave described here: gold-eagle.com 50-60 yrs of recession...why do you even bother investing in any stocks, because they will likely go nowhere as paper assest are seen with distrust. Invest here instead: Deluxe Family Unit "Our Best" 1 Year Supply for 2 or 6 Month Supply for 4 survivalcenter.com It may well be worse than we think. Maybe we'll get a flu epidemic at the same time as a natural disaster like an ice age or comet hitting the earth, in which case I'm not sure if bonds or equities are better. <vbg> I do think that the US could have a severe correction for a few years, but Americans are pretty entrepreneurial, and the obese will get thin quickly, consuming less diabetes healthcare. I do not think the US will go through the painful 'water torture' Japan is still going through. If a global recession I also do not see any other nation, except maybe China and India, having the domestic demand and willpower to pull through int he short-term, and even that is questionable. As they say in Canada, when the US gets a cold Canada gets the flu. What happens when the US gets the flu? D