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To: rubbersoul who wrote (22074)	11/28/2004 2:45:08 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 312358

jhong, <I fail to see the continued benefits of a much weaker dollar> It would help the politicians because it would help the exporters, and this is easier than protectionism. <Apart from a technical bounce here I do not think anyone has a choice: the US dollar is going down (gradually). Also, I think that the cat is out of the bag concerning the US deficits and the overvalued dollar.> All currencies are going down. Debasement is one of the unintended consequences of globalisation, where jobs at home are priority #1 for politicians, whatever the increase in energy and other commodities it brings. Debasement will also bring low interest rates, for who wants to attract investment through high rates. Maybe the housing bubble keeps going for another while? Inflation must occur, though, as all nations experience rising costs for commodities and energy. Offshoring may stumble, though, as currency arb may become clouded. If this means business investment drops then productivity will cease to rise also. I think the additional uncertainty will be even more difficult for corporations. Will it be good for gold? I think so, but first other nations need a taste of what the US has gone through. Perhaps next year, even for stronger currencies, in addition to commodities, gold will rise. By the way, I put together some data on POG in Dollar Index. Sorry no graph (when will SI give us that?) Message 20806318 David

To: rubbersoul who wrote (22074)	11/28/2004 4:46:02 AM
From: Proud Deplorable	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 312358

John, while it might be fun to debate this subject with Taikun you must realize that you are dealing with a person whose opinion is myopically impaired ny misplaced nationalism and therefore can not be objective. I try to read your posts word for word because you are so insightful but your well thought out posts on the USD exchange rates are lost on him I'm afraid. Taikun......do you know how to play chess? Like it or not, there is a war going on and it is an economic war. Short term Europe may feel hurt by the rising Euro but there is only one winner in this war and that is China and the biggest loser of all will be the USA. Here is why I asked you if you play chess. There is a term known as CHECKMATE and this is where the US is now. Don't feel badly they did it to themselves by not playing the game smartly nor fairly. The game is over and you would be best advised to abandon ship and get on the PM bandwagon. Sink or swim. "But you are right. We must be cautious. But if we are too cautious or nervous then we often make bad decisions." Trust your research and knowledge as it is correct. Remember that there are many countries out there that would like to see the USA fail but they are no match militarily but the USA is extremely vulnerable economically. I keep harping on this because it is important for people to plan financially looking at the whole picture. It is WRONG to assume that the current dollar smash is just a feature of twin deficits because while this may be the main reason the icing on the cake is opportunistic countries that somehow feel that they will survive the worldwide economic dislocation and want to minimize the damage by cutting the dollar loose sooner rather than later and that the extra little push is made easier because of the current fear and dislike for US policies. Taikun, I am not interested in debating this point becuase it is not debatable. it is an indisputable FACT and if you want to turn it into some partisan argument do it on Stockman Scotts, not here.